干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Model evaluation and uncertainties in projected changes of drought over northern China based on CMIP5 models

Arid

DOI	10.1002/joc.6907
	Model evaluation and uncertainties in projected changes of drought over northern China based on CMIP5 models
	Lu, Xi; Rao, Xiaoqiang; Dong, Wenjie
通讯作者	Lu, X
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
英文摘要	In recent decades, severe and long duration drought events have serious impacts on northern China. Consequently, this study is motivated by investigating the projection and uncertainties of drought change over northern China based on 20 CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (AMME) and best multi-model ensemble (BMME) under middle and high emission scenarios. BMME selected in term of the spatial patterns and interannual variability of aridity index (AI) against the observations shows better performance on the simulation of dryland especially for hyper-arid areas in Northwest China (NWC) and sub-humid regions in North China (NC). In the middle of 21st century, the projections from two model ensembles illustrate the aggravation of drought in loess plateau and west of Xinjiang but reduction of acridity over NWC. Northeast China (NEC) becomes more arid under RCP8.5 that is sensitive with the high emission. The uncertainties increase between two model ensembles at the end of 21st century when the opposite trend can be found over NC under RCP4.5 and NEC under RCP8.5, respectively. The increasing rate of precipitation and PET is the key factor for AI change. The larger contribution of precipitation than PET results in the humid tendency over NWC. Moreover, the equivalent contributions of precipitation and PET induce the increased uncertainties in AI change over NC and NEC. Similarly, the temporal evaluation of AI indicates decreasing trend of drought over NWC but the large uncertainties can be found after middle of this century over NEC and in the early of the century over NC.
英文关键词	CMIP5 drought northern China uncertainties
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000584927800001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; INDEXES ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; EVAPORATION ; SIMULATION ; ENSEMBLE
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/328430
作者单位	[Lu, Xi; Dong, Wenjie] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, 135 West Xingang Rd, Guangzhou 510275, Peoples R China; [Lu, Xi; Dong, Wenjie] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Climate Change & Nat Disas, Guangzhou, Peoples R China; [Rao, Xiaoqiang] Dongguan Meteorol Bur, Dongguan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lu, Xi,Rao, Xiaoqiang,Dong, Wenjie. Model evaluation and uncertainties in projected changes of drought over northern China based on CMIP5 models[J].
APA	Lu, Xi,Rao, Xiaoqiang,&Dong, Wenjie.
MLA	Lu, Xi,et al."Model evaluation and uncertainties in projected changes of drought over northern China based on CMIP5 models".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY