干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11258-020-01085-2
	Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California
	Benavides, Eva; Breceda, Aurora; Anadon, Jose D.
通讯作者	Breceda, A
来源期刊	PLANT ECOLOGY
ISSN	1385-0237
EISSN	1573-5052
英文摘要	The Cactaceae is considered one of the most threatened taxa in the world. However, the extent to which climate change could compromise the conservation status of this group has rarely been investigated. The present study advances this issue under three specific aims: (1) to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of endemic cacti species in the Baja California Peninsula (n = 40), (2) to study how the impact of climate change is distributed in this group according to the species' conservation status, and (3) to analyze how these impacts are organized from a biogeographical and functional perspective. We addressed these objectives under three socioeconomic emission pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), and using two extreme migration scenarios: full climate change tracking and no migration. Altogether, all socioeconomic emission pathways under the two extreme migration scenarios show consistency regarding the identity of the species most vulnerable to climate change, and depict a discrepant future scenario that has, on one hand, species with large potential habitat gains/stability (winners); and on the other, species with large habitat reductions (losers). Our work indicates that winner species have a tropical affinity, globose growth, and includes most of the currently threatened species, whereas loser ones are in arid and Mediterranean systems and are mostly non-threatened. Thus, current and future threat factors do not overlap in the biogeographic and taxonomic space. That reveals a worrisome horizon at supraspecific levels in the study area, since the total number of threatened species in the future might largely increase.
英文关键词	Species traits Endangered cacti Growth form Sonoran Desert Mexico
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000575029500002
WOS关键词	RANGE SHIFTS ; PROTECTED AREAS ; NICHE ; VULNERABILITY ; CONSERVATION ; TRAITS ; MODELS ; BIODIVERSITY ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; DIVERSITY
WOS类目	Plant Sciences ; Ecology ; Forestry
WOS研究方向	Plant Sciences ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Forestry
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/328317
作者单位	[Benavides, Eva; Breceda, Aurora] Ctr Invest Biol Noroeste SC, Ave Inst Politecn Nacl, La Paz 23096, Bcs, Mexico; [Anadon, Jose D.] CUNY, Dept Biol, Queens Coll, Queens, NY 11367 USA; [Anadon, Jose D.] CUNY, Grad Ctr, Biol Program, New York, NY 10016 USA; [Anadon, Jose D.] Univ Zaragoza, Dept Agr Sci & Environm, Huesca 22071, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Benavides, Eva,Breceda, Aurora,Anadon, Jose D.. Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California[J].
APA	Benavides, Eva,Breceda, Aurora,&Anadon, Jose D..
MLA	Benavides, Eva,et al."Winners and losers in the predicted impact of climate change on cacti species in Baja California".PLANT ECOLOGY