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DOI	10.1002/ldr.3681
	Desertification risk assessment in Northeast Brazil: Current trends and future scenarios
	Vieira, Rita Marcia D. S. P.; Tomasella, Javier; Barbosa, Alexandre A.; Martins, Minella A.; Rodriguez, Daniel A.; Rezende, Fernanda S. D.; Carriello, Felix; Santana, Marcos D. O.
通讯作者	Vieira, RMDSP
来源期刊	LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT
ISSN	1085-3278
EISSN	1099-145X
英文摘要	Desertification is one of the major environmental problems that humanity faces today, since it reduces the availability of ecosystem services, increases food insecurity and poverty, and affects the wellbeing of societies. The analysis of the process is extremely complex, since the phenomenon takes place at different temporal and spatial scales, influenced by different factors. It is widely recognized that land use/land cover change (LULC) is one of the main drivers of desertification since environmental degradation is always triggers by the removal of natural vegetation cover. In this study, a LULC change model was calibrated and validated using climate model simulations, demographic data and land susceptibility maps for the historical period 2000-2010. Then, desertification susceptibility of the Northeast of Brazil were estimated by integrating LULC trajectories with three different downscaled climate change scenarios and projection of population growth for the period 2015-2025, 2025-2035, and 2035-2045 for the emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicated that, between 2010 and 2035-2045, areas of moderate susceptibility decreased 10.34%, while areas of high susceptibility increased 12.28% in the case of the RCP4.5. For the RCP8.5 scenario, those numbers are -16.85% for moderate susceptibility, and +19.62% for high susceptibility. Among all indicators included in the analysis, land management was the main driver of desertification susceptibility, which indicates that mitigation and adaptation strategies for the region should pursue sustainable land use policies.
英文关键词	climate change climatic projections desertification susceptibility LULC modelling MEDALUS
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000557831800001
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; CARBON STOCKS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DYNAMICS ; AGRICULTURE ; ECOSYSTEMS ; PATTERNS ; SIMULATE ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Soil Science
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/328138
作者单位	[Vieira, Rita Marcia D. S. P.; Barbosa, Alexandre A.] Inst Nacl Pesquisas Espaciais, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil; [Tomasella, Javier; Martins, Minella A.] Ctr Nacl Monitoramento & Alertas Desastres Nat CE, Sao Jose Dos Campos, Brazil; [Rodriguez, Daniel A.] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, Inst Alberto Luiz Coimbra, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil; [Rezende, Fernanda S. D.; Carriello, Felix] Univ Fed Fluminense, Niteroi, RJ, Brazil; [Santana, Marcos D. O.] Minist Meio Ambiente, Esplanada Minist, Secretaria Extrativismo & Desenvolvimento Rural S, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vieira, Rita Marcia D. S. P.,Tomasella, Javier,Barbosa, Alexandre A.,et al. Desertification risk assessment in Northeast Brazil: Current trends and future scenarios[J].
APA	Vieira, Rita Marcia D. S. P..,Tomasella, Javier.,Barbosa, Alexandre A..,Martins, Minella A..,Rodriguez, Daniel A..,...&Santana, Marcos D. O..
MLA	Vieira, Rita Marcia D. S. P.,et al."Desertification risk assessment in Northeast Brazil: Current trends and future scenarios".LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT