干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins-A Case Study of Xinjiang

Arid

DOI	10.3390/ijerph17239091
	System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins-A Case Study of Xinjiang
	Shao, Zhiying; Wu, Fengping; Li, Fang; Zhao, Yue; Xu, Xia
通讯作者	Wu, FP
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
EISSN	1660-4601
出版年	2020
卷号	17 期号:23
英文摘要	With the rapid development of social economy and global climate warming, scarce transboundary water resources, as one of the basic resources for socio-economic development, have increasingly become the focus of basin countries. To investigate the socio-economic impacts of different water diversion quantity from transboundary river basins, we used a system dynamics (SD) model to reflect interactions between population, water resources, and socio-economic development, and applied it to a case study in Xinjiang to simulate its change tendency from 2011 to 2030 from the temporal dimension. Then, four water diversion quantity of transboundary river basins and four alternative socio-economic development patterns were designed to comprehensively evaluate these impacts of water diversion quantity change on the socio-economy of the region along the river under different socio-economic development patterns. The results indicate that (1) there was a positive correlation between water diversion quantity and the economic output value of the region along transboundary river basins, and the marginal benefit of transboundary water resources would decrease gradually; (2) considering the difficulty of water diversion from transboundary river basins and the protection of downstream water use and ecological health of transboundary river basins, we believe that increasing the transboundary water resources by 20% was more conducive to the sustainable development of Xinjiang's socio-economy; (3) through the comparison of dynamic evolutions of socio-economic development and water impacts under four socio-economic development patterns, it is best for Xinjiang to plan its future development in the coordinated development of economic-resource scenario. Following this scenario, not only would the total output value of the socio-economy be better than other scenarios, but this also helps to alleviate the contradiction between the water supply and demand, which expected there would be a water shortage of 1.04 billion m(3) in 2029 under 20% increase in water diversion quantity. Therefore, appropriate water diversion quantity, reasonable adjustment of industrial production growth rate, reduction of water consumption quotas of different industries and domestic water quota, and improvement of collection and treatment rate for sewage should be given priority in water resources management decision-making in Xinjiang or other arid regions along transboundary river basins.
英文关键词	Xinjiang socio-economic impact scenario analysis system dynamics transboundary river basins
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000597446000001
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
来源机构	河海大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/327883
作者单位	[Shao, Zhiying; Wu, Fengping; Li, Fang; Zhao, Yue; Xu, Xia] Hohai Univ, Business Sch, Nanjing 211100, Peoples R China; [Shao, Zhiying; Wu, Fengping; Li, Fang; Zhao, Yue; Xu, Xia] Natl Engn Res Ctr Water Resources Efficient Utili, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shao, Zhiying,Wu, Fengping,Li, Fang,et al. System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins-A Case Study of Xinjiang[J]. 河海大学,2020,17(23).
APA	Shao, Zhiying,Wu, Fengping,Li, Fang,Zhao, Yue,&Xu, Xia.(2020).System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins-A Case Study of Xinjiang.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,17(23).
MLA	Shao, Zhiying,et al."System Dynamics Model for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impacts of Different Water Diversion Quantity from Transboundary River Basins-A Case Study of Xinjiang".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 17.23(2020).