干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States

Arid

DOI	10.1029/2019JD031735
	Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States
	Brey, Steven J.; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Fischer, Emily V.
通讯作者	Brey, SJ ; Fischer, EV
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
ISSN	2169-897X
EISSN	2169-8996
出版年	2020
卷号	125 期号:21
英文摘要	This work examines how environmental variables previously shown to be correlated with dust emissions (temperature, vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity, precipitation, soil moisture, wind speed, and leaf area index [LAI]) explain historical variability in observed fine dust concentrations in the southwestern United States. We quantify fine dust concentrations in the U.S. Southwest dust season, March through July 1995 through 2015, using fine iron measurements from the Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments network as a dust proxy. We use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) output to estimate how environmental variables that drive dust concentrations may change in the future. The majority of CMIP5 models that simulate LAI, a quantity anticorrelated with dust concentrations, show increasing LAI in the Southwest United States in the 21st century. Based on linear estimates of how dust concentrations respond to changes in LAI, increases in LAI could result in reduced dust concentrations in the future. However, when environmental variables are selected objectively using lasso regression, LAI is not selected in favor of other variables. When using a linear combination of objectively selected environmental variables, we estimate that future Southwest dust season concentrations will increase by 0.24 mu g m(-3) (12%) by the end of the 21st century for RCP 8.5. This estimated increase in fine dust concentration is driven by decreases in relative humidity, precipitation, and soil moisture and buffered by decreased wind speeds.
英文关键词	dust air quality climate CMIP5 Southwest United States
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000591896900007
WOS关键词	LEAF-AREA INDEX ; DESERT DUST ; CLIMATE ; COVER ; WIND ; EMISSION ; INCREASE ; MODELS ; IMPACT ; CMIP5
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	Colorado State University
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/327617
作者单位	[Brey, Steven J.; Pierce, Jeffrey R.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Fischer, Emily V.] Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brey, Steven J.,Pierce, Jeffrey R.,Barnes, Elizabeth A.,et al. Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States[J]. Colorado State University,2020,125(21).
APA	Brey, Steven J.,Pierce, Jeffrey R.,Barnes, Elizabeth A.,&Fischer, Emily V..(2020).Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,125(21).
MLA	Brey, Steven J.,et al."Estimating the Spread in Future Fine Dust Concentrations in the Southwest United States".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 125.21(2020).