干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015-2099

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DOI	10.1016/j.accre.2020.09.003
	Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015-2099
	Li Su-Yuan; Miao Li-Juan; Jiang Zhi-Hong; Wang Guo-Jie; Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj; Zhang Jing; Zhang Hui; Fang Ke; He Yu; Li Chun
通讯作者	Miao, LJ
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH
ISSN	1674-9278
出版年	2020
卷号	11 期号:3 页码:210-217
英文摘要	Northwest China is one of the most arid regions in the world and has experienced intriguing climate warming and humidification. Nonetheless, future climate conditions in Northwest China still remain uncertain. In this study, we applied an ensemble of the 12 latest model simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess future drought conditions until 2099 in Northwest China, as inferred from the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Future drought conditions were projected under three climate change scenarios through the combination of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs), namely, SSP126 (SSP1 + RCP2.6, a green development pathway), SSP245 (SSP2 + RCP4.5, an intermediate development pathway), and SSP585 (SSP5 + RCP8.5, a high development pathway). For 2015-2099, drought severity showed no trend under SSP126, in contrast, for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, a rapid increase during 2015-2099 was observed, especially under SSP585. We also found that the drought frequency in Northwest China under SSP585 was generally lower than that under SSP126 and SSP245, although the drought duration under SSP585 tended to be longer. These findings suggest the green development pathway in drought mitigation and adaptation strategies in Northwest China, an arid and agricultural region along the Silk Road.
英文关键词	Climate change Drought CMIP6 PDSI Dryland Northwest China
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000591681600006
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER-BASIN ; PRECIPITATION ; DESERTIFICATION ; VARIABILITY ; PLATEAU ; TRENDS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/327604
作者单位	[Li Su-Yuan; Jiang Zhi-Hong] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; [Miao Li-Juan; Wang Guo-Jie; Zhang Jing; Zhang Hui; He Yu; Li Chun] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China; [Miao Li-Juan] Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Economies, D-06120 Halle, Germany; [Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj] Himalayan Risk Res Inst, Nat Hazards Sect, Bhaktapur 44800, Nepal; [Fang Ke] Shangyu Meteorol Bur, Shaoxing 312000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li Su-Yuan,Miao Li-Juan,Jiang Zhi-Hong,et al. Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015-2099[J]. 南京信息工程大学,2020,11(3):210-217.
APA	Li Su-Yuan.,Miao Li-Juan.,Jiang Zhi-Hong.,Wang Guo-Jie.,Gnyawali, Kaushal Raj.,...&Li Chun.(2020).Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015-2099.ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH,11(3),210-217.
MLA	Li Su-Yuan,et al."Projected drought conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 models under combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015-2099".ADVANCES IN CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH 11.3(2020):210-217.