干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a semi-arid area in central Mexico using a SWAT model

Arid

DOI	10.18268/BSGM2020v72n2a150819
	Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a semi-arid area in central Mexico using a SWAT model
	Deng, Chao; Pisani, Bruno; Hernandez, Horacio; Li, Yanmei
通讯作者	Li, YM
来源期刊	BOLETIN DE LA SOCIEDAD GEOLOGICA MEXICANA
ISSN	1405-3322
出版年	2020
卷号	72 期号:2
英文摘要	A Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT) was developed for the Cuenca Inde-pendencia, a 6992 km(2) watershed with a signif-icant seasonal climate situated in the semi-arid highlands of Guanajuato State in central Mex-ico. This area is dominated by agricultural land cover (43.32 %), followed by pasture (25.7 %). Good to very good results for the coefficient of determination (R-2, 0.66 similar to 0.89) and the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE, 0.65 similar to 0.88) were obtained during both the calibration and the validation periods, while the percent bias (PBIAS) was not so good as the former indicators, but with satisfactory to very good results. According to the projections of seven general circulation models (GCM) under Cou-pled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for climate change prediction, the Cuenca Independencia may experience more precipitation and higher temperature under emission scenarios of Representative Con-centration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the mid-century period (2030 2059), as well as the end of this century (2070 2099), compared to the baseline condition (1970 1999). Potential evapotranspiration (PET) and real evapotranspiration (ET) are predicted to increase continuously. Both mean annual sur-face runoff and aquifer recharge are predicted to increase more rapidly under the condition of scenario RCP 8.5 than RCP 4.5. However, increasing demands of agricultural irrigation are expected to consume the larger water volume seeping into the groundwater system, making aquifer recovery unlikely through natural processes under the current water resources management framework.
英文关键词	Soil and Water Assessment Tool model (SWAT) Cuenca Independencia Semi-arid Climate change RCP scenario
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000583901300006
WOS关键词	GROUNDWATER RECHARGE ; FLOW ; PRECIPITATION ; CALIBRATION ; GUANAJUATO ; CATCHMENT ; BASIN ; OSCILLATION ; TEMPERATURE ; SIMULATION
WOS类目	Geology
WOS研究方向	Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/327205
作者单位	[Deng, Chao; Hernandez, Horacio; Li, Yanmei] Univ Guanajuato, Engn Div, Campus Guanajuato,Lascurain de Retana 5, Guanajuato 36000, Mexico; [Pisani, Bruno] Univ A Coruna, Escuela Tecnica Super Ingenieros Caminos Canales, Rua Maestranza 9, La Coruna 15001, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deng, Chao,Pisani, Bruno,Hernandez, Horacio,et al. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a semi-arid area in central Mexico using a SWAT model[J],2020,72(2).
APA	Deng, Chao,Pisani, Bruno,Hernandez, Horacio,&Li, Yanmei.(2020).Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a semi-arid area in central Mexico using a SWAT model.BOLETIN DE LA SOCIEDAD GEOLOGICA MEXICANA,72(2).
MLA	Deng, Chao,et al."Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a semi-arid area in central Mexico using a SWAT model".BOLETIN DE LA SOCIEDAD GEOLOGICA MEXICANA 72.2(2020).