干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Scientific forecast use and factors of influence in water-constrained contexts: The case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.cliser.2020.100169
	Scientific forecast use and factors of influence in water-constrained contexts: The case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica
	Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle; Babcock, Matthew
通讯作者	Wong-Parodi, G
来源期刊	CLIMATE SERVICES
ISSN	2405-8807
出版年	2020
卷号	18
英文摘要	Unexpected changes in the amount and timing of seasonal precipitation and temperature provide significant challenges to stakeholders in water-constrained areas of the world. These changes are particularly problematic for decisions that face economic and organizational constraints from those changes. The use of climate forecasts informed by scientific observations and statistical analyses that assume system dynamism may improve decision making and outcomes, however many of these stakeholders rely on traditional and/or folkloric strategies based on observations from the environment. Here we survey 87 stakeholders representing groups such as national agencies, farmers, and water managers in the semi-arid region of Guanacaste, Costa Rica on (1) their perceptions of freshwater security, (2) the role of forecast type (weekly, seasonal, and yearly) plays in their decision making, and (3) the factors that most influence the use of forecasts in decision making. Stakeholders report having enough freshwater to meet their current needs, however they are less certain about the future. Stakeholders are generally using forecasts but that use is not uniform - the most vulnerable to shocks are those that tend to trust traditional and/or folkloric methods the most, and are the least likely to use longer-term forecasts in their decision making. Policies for enhancing engagement between the potential users and producers of forecasts may increase use of climate forecasts among the most vulnerable stakeholders.
英文关键词	Forecasts Decision making Stakeholders Drought
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000582024700008
WOS关键词	SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ; CENTRAL-AMERICA ; INFORMATION ; WEATHER ; DECISION ; PERCEPTIONS ; FARMERS ; COMMUNICATION ; MANAGEMENT ; USABILITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/327103
作者单位	[Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA; [Babcock, Matthew] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Inst Software Res, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle,Babcock, Matthew. Scientific forecast use and factors of influence in water-constrained contexts: The case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica[J],2020,18.
APA	Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle,&Babcock, Matthew.(2020).Scientific forecast use and factors of influence in water-constrained contexts: The case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica.CLIMATE SERVICES,18.
MLA	Wong-Parodi, Gabrielle,et al."Scientific forecast use and factors of influence in water-constrained contexts: The case of Guanacaste, Costa Rica".CLIMATE SERVICES 18(2020).