干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami River sub-basin, Tanzania: A bio-economic simulation approach

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.agsy.2020.102948
	The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami River sub-basin, Tanzania: A bio-economic simulation approach
	Kadigi, Ibrahim L.; Richardson, James W.; Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.; Philip, Damas; Mourice, Sixbert K.; Mbungu, Winfred; Bizimana, Jean-Claude; Sieber, Stefan
通讯作者	Kadigi, IL
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
ISSN	0308-521X
EISSN	1873-2267
出版年	2020
卷号	185
英文摘要	Maize (Zea mays L.) is the essential staple in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Tanzania in particular; the crop accounts for over 30% of the food production, 20% of the agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and over 75% of the cereal consumption. Maize is grown under a higher risk of failure due to the over-dependence rainfed farming system resulting in low income and food insecurity among maize-based farmers. However, many practices, including conservation agriculture, soil and water conservation, resilient crop varieties, and soil fertility management, are suggested to increase cereal productivity in Tanzania. Improving planting density, and the use of fertilizers are the immediate options recommended by Tanzania's government. In this paper, we evaluate the economic feasibility of the improved planting density (optimized plant population) and N-fertilizer crop management practices on maize net returns in semi-arid and sub-humid agro-ecological zones in the Wami River sub-Basin, Tanzania. We introduce a bio-economic simulation model using Monte Carlo simulation procedures to evaluate the economic viability of risky crop management practices so that the decision-maker can make better management decisions. The study utilizes maize yield data sets from two biophysical cropping system models, namely the APSIM and DSSAT. A total of 83 plots for the semi-arid and 85 plots for the subhumid agro-ecological zones consisted of this analysis. The crop management practices under study comprise the application of 40 kg N-fertilizer/ha and plant population of 3.3 plants/m(2). The study finds that the use of improved plant population had the lowest annual net return with fertilizer application fetching the highest return. The two crop models demonstrated a zero probability of negative net returns for farms using fertilizer rates of 40 kg N/ha except for DSSAT, which observed a small probability (0.4%) in the sub-humid area. The optimized plant population presented 16.4% to 26.6% probability of negatives net returns for semi-arid and 14.6% to 30.2% probability of negative net returns for sub-humid zones. The results suggest that the application of fertilizer practices reduces the risks associated with the mean returns, but increasing the plant population has a high probability of economic failure, particularly in the sub-humid zone. Maize sub-sector in Tanzania is projected to continue experiencing a significant decrease in yields and net returns, but there is a high chance that it will be better-off if proper alternatives are employed. Similar studies are needed to explore the potential of interventions highlighted in the ACRP for better decision-making.
英文关键词	Bio-economic simulation APSIM DSSAT Crop-management practices Risk Maize Tanzania
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000581099200016
WOS关键词	ECONOMIC-FEASIBILITY ; SYSTEM ; APSIM
WOS类目	Agriculture, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/327027
作者单位	[Kadigi, Ibrahim L.; Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.; Philip, Damas] Sokoine Univ Agr, Sch Agr Econ & Business Studies, POB 3007, Morogoro, Tanzania; [Kadigi, Ibrahim L.; Mbungu, Winfred] Sokoine Univ Agr, Soil Water Management Res Programme, POB 3003, Morogoro, Tanzania; [Richardson, James W.; Bizimana, Jean-Claude] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Agr Econ, 600 John Kimbrough Blvd AGLS Blg, College Stn, TX 77843 USA; [Mourice, Sixbert K.] Sokoine Univ Agr, Dept Crop Sci & Hort, POB 3005, Morogoro, Tanzania; [Mbungu, Winfred] Sokoine Univ Agr, Dept Engn Sci & Technol, POB 3003, Morogoro, Tanzania; [Sieber, Stefan] Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Eberswalder Str 84, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany; [Sieber, Stefan] Humboldt Univ, Thaer Inst, Dept Agr Econ, Fac Life Sci, Unter Linden 6, D-10099 Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kadigi, Ibrahim L.,Richardson, James W.,Mutabazi, Khamaldin D.,et al. The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami River sub-basin, Tanzania: A bio-economic simulation approach[J],2020,185.
APA	Kadigi, Ibrahim L..,Richardson, James W..,Mutabazi, Khamaldin D..,Philip, Damas.,Mourice, Sixbert K..,...&Sieber, Stefan.(2020).The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami River sub-basin, Tanzania: A bio-economic simulation approach.AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS,185.
MLA	Kadigi, Ibrahim L.,et al."The effect of nitrogen-fertilizer and optimal plant population on the profitability of maize plots in the Wami River sub-basin, Tanzania: A bio-economic simulation approach".AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS 185(2020).