干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106858
	Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios
	Zarei, Azin; Asadi, Esmaeil; Ebrahimi, Ataollah; Jafari, Mohammad; Malekian, Arash; Nasrabadi, Hamid Mohammadi; Chemura, Abel; Maskell, Gina
通讯作者	Zarei, A
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2020
卷号	119
英文摘要	Grasslands are subject to degradation in arid and semi-arid areas as the result of various pressures, including climate change. Therefore, spatial and temporal monitoring of vegetation cover fluctuation is needed for better understanding and management of natural resources to sustain livelihoods that depend on these grasslands. In this study, changes in vegetation cover were monitored over 1985-2015, using vegetation indices derived from the Landsat images in Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiyari province, Iran. The percentage of vegetation cover was recorded from sampling plots in the study areas and vegetation indices were calculated from Landsat data over the study period. The relationship between vegetation cover and climate parameters (temperature (T) and precipitation (P)) was determined from precipitation maps, produced from spatial interpolation of weather stations data and temperature maps, produced by regression equation established between DEM-derived elevation and temperature. Then, a regression equation between climate variables and vegetation cover over a period of 30 years' period was developed and applied on projected climatic variables for the 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The Green Vegetation Index (GVI) was found to be the best index for estimation of vegetation cover from the correlation coefficient (r = 0.79) and model RMSE (1.98). The GVI fluctuation was associated with the fluctuation in climate variables, and this was especially evident in especially dry years (1999, 2001 and 2012). From the difference between current and future vegetation cover maps, future vegetation cover change maps were produced and vulnerable areas most likely to be impacted by climate change were identified. The results predict that vegetation cover will be reduced under both scenarios, mostly in the eastern parts of the study region, while 5-25% of vegetation cover increases are projected for some areas in the western parts of the region. Further analysis showed that currently, oak forest covers large swaths of the western parts adjacent to grasslands, but forest degradation will lead to increase of grassland areas at the expense of oak forests. Overall, substantial loss of vegetation cover is predicted in the central parts and extends to the southern parts of the province. Loss of vegetation cover would pave the way to conversion of grassland to other non-productive cover types for pastoral systems. Appropriate management programs and adaptation strategies should be designed and implemented to reduce climate change impacts on grasslands in the identified vulnerable areas.
英文关键词	Natural ecosystems Climate change Vegetation cover fluctuation Emission scenarios
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000579817600063
WOS关键词	AMAZONIAN DEFORESTATION ; CENTRAL-ASIA ; LAND-USE ; IMPACTS ; PRECIPITATION ; FOREST ; VULNERABILITY ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; SERVICES
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/326890
作者单位	[Zarei, Azin; Chemura, Abel; Maskell, Gina] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, A56 Telegraphenberg,R018, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany; [Asadi, Esmaeil; Ebrahimi, Ataollah] Shahrekord Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Earth Sci, Chahar Mahal Bakhtiari, Iran; [Jafari, Mohammad; Malekian, Arash] Univ Tehran, Fac Nat Resources, Karaj, Iran; [Nasrabadi, Hamid Mohammadi] Univ Shahrekord, Dept Forestry, Chahar Mahal Bakhtiari, Iran; [Nasrabadi, Hamid Mohammadi] Univ Shahrekord, Dept Forestry, Bakhtiari, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zarei, Azin,Asadi, Esmaeil,Ebrahimi, Ataollah,et al. Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios[J],2020,119.
APA	Zarei, Azin.,Asadi, Esmaeil.,Ebrahimi, Ataollah.,Jafari, Mohammad.,Malekian, Arash.,...&Maskell, Gina.(2020).Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,119.
MLA	Zarei, Azin,et al."Prediction of future grassland vegetation cover fluctuation under climate change scenarios".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 119(2020).