干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the influence of natural climate variability

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-020-03389-9
	Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the influence of natural climate variability
	Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Behlil, Farida; Darwish, Mohamad S. J.
通讯作者	Khan, N
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2020
卷号	142 期号:3-4 页码:1447-1462
英文摘要	Natural variability of climate considerably affects hydro-climatic trend significance, and therefore, removal of such influence is essential to understand the unidirectional trends due to global warming. The objective of this study was to evaluate the trends in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan by removing the natural variability of climate to understand the effect of global warming on precipitation extremes during two major cropping seasons, Rabi and Kharif. Daily precipitation data of APHRODITE (Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation) for the period 1951-2015 was used for this purpose. An improved form of classical Mann-Kendall (MK) test known as modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) was used which can estimate trends by discarding the influence of natural cycles present in time series. The results were compared with the classical MK test to show the novelty in the findings of this investigation. The results revealed a large influence of climate fluctuations on the trends in all the extreme precipitation indices for both seasons. The reduction in trend significance was noticed between 25 and 100% for different precipitation indices when MMK instead of MK test was used. The reduction was observed more for the positive trends in the indices compared with negative trends. The results revealed that global warming caused an increase in total annual precipitation at a rate of 2.8-34.8 mm/decade during 1951-2015. Besides, the annual number of extreme precipitation days was found to increase in the north by 0.1-0.84 days/decade and the number of annual precipitation days to decrease in the west for all seasons up to - 8.6 days/decade. An increase in continuous precipitation days was detected by 0.6-1.0 day/decade in the northeast while a decrease by - 0.5 to - 1.0 days/decade in the southwest and northwest. The continuous dry days decreased in the north and the central regions by up to - 6.3 days/decade while a rise in 1-day maximum precipitation by 6.6-35 mm/decade in the central north. Analysis of results revealed that the overestimation of trends by classical MK test is more in the arid region of Pakistan compared with other regions.
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000572055600003
WOS关键词	KENDALL TREND TEST ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; RAINFALL ; COEFFICIENT ; PROJECTION ; INDEXES ; BASIN
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/326460
作者单位	[Khan, Najeebullah] Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci LUAWMS, Fac Engn Sci & Technol, Uthal 90150, Balochistan, Pakistan; [Khan, Najeebullah; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Darwish, Mohamad S. J.] Univ Teknol Malaysia UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; [Chung, Eun-Sung] Seoul Natl Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Seoul, South Korea; [Behlil, Farida] Sardar Bahadur Khan Womens Univ, Dept Chem, Quetta 87300, Balochistan, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Khan, Najeebullah,Shahid, Shamsuddin,Chung, Eun-Sung,et al. Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the influence of natural climate variability[J],2020,142(3-4):1447-1462.
APA	Khan, Najeebullah,Shahid, Shamsuddin,Chung, Eun-Sung,Behlil, Farida,&Darwish, Mohamad S. J..(2020).Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the influence of natural climate variability.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,142(3-4),1447-1462.
MLA	Khan, Najeebullah,et al."Spatiotemporal changes in precipitation extremes in the arid province of Pakistan with removal of the influence of natural climate variability".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 142.3-4(2020):1447-1462.