干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Variability and forecasting of air temperature in Elqui Valley (Chile)

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DOI	10.1007/s12145-020-00519-9
	Variability and forecasting of air temperature in Elqui Valley (Chile)
	Lazzus, Juan A.; Vega-Jorquera, Pedro; Salfate, Ignacio; Cuturrufo, Fernando; Palma-Chilla, Luis
通讯作者	Lazzus, JA
来源期刊	EARTH SCIENCE INFORMATICS
ISSN	1865-0473
EISSN	1865-0481
出版年	2020
卷号	13 期号:4 页码:1411-1425
英文摘要	A method to forecast air temperatureT(A)in Elqui Valley (south of Chile's Atacama Desert) using an artificial neural network (ANN) and meteorological time series data relevant to this zone, is proposed. This zone has one of the most sensitive climates in South America due to the influence of phenomena such asEl Nino/La Nina, the Southeast Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone, Humboldt Current, and Madden-Julian Oscillation, in addition to the complex topography of Chilean east-west transverse valleys, and the Andes. We used a method that combines ANN and genetic algorithm (GA) for forecastingT(A)1, 3, and 6 hours ahead. GA is introduced to optimize the weights update process in the proposed method. Our database contains 457,969 data, from 2004-2017, taken from eight stations throughout the valley and divided into three datasets: training set with 50% of overall data of each station, validation set with the subsequent 25% of data of each station, and prediction set with the last 25% of data. Several architectures were evaluated using the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and correlation coefficient (R). The results show that the ANN+GA method represents a powerful technique for forecastingT(A)with RMSE from 0.99 to 4.51 [degrees C], MAE from 0.52 to 3.07 [degrees C], and R from 0.86 to 0.96. Also, we use the values obtained by ANN+GA method to investigate the spatialT(A)variability in elevation from the coast similar to 30 [masl] to the Andean zone of this valley similar to 5,000 [masl].
英文关键词	Air temperature Seasonal trends Time series forecasting Artificial neural netwok Atacama desert Semi-arid climate
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000572000100001
WOS关键词	ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS ; DAILY SOLAR-RADIATION ; GENETIC ALGORITHM ; ATACAMA DESERT ; NORTE CHICO ; PREDICTION ; PRECIPITATION ; WIND ; EVOLUTION ; HUMIDITY
WOS类目	Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Computer Science ; Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/326456
作者单位	[Lazzus, Juan A.; Vega-Jorquera, Pedro; Salfate, Ignacio; Cuturrufo, Fernando; Palma-Chilla, Luis] Univ La Serena, Dept Fis, Casilla 554, La Serena, Chile; [Lazzus, Juan A.] Univ La Serena, Inst Invest Multidisciplinario Ciencias & Tecnol, Casilla 554, La Serena, Chile
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lazzus, Juan A.,Vega-Jorquera, Pedro,Salfate, Ignacio,et al. Variability and forecasting of air temperature in Elqui Valley (Chile)[J],2020,13(4):1411-1425.
APA	Lazzus, Juan A.,Vega-Jorquera, Pedro,Salfate, Ignacio,Cuturrufo, Fernando,&Palma-Chilla, Luis.(2020).Variability and forecasting of air temperature in Elqui Valley (Chile).EARTH SCIENCE INFORMATICS,13(4),1411-1425.
MLA	Lazzus, Juan A.,et al."Variability and forecasting of air temperature in Elqui Valley (Chile)".EARTH SCIENCE INFORMATICS 13.4(2020):1411-1425.