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DOI	10.1007/s00704-020-03362-6
	Extreme climate events under global warming in northern Fars Province, southern Iran
	Naderi, Mostafa
通讯作者	Naderi, M
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2020
卷号	142 期号:3-4 页码:1221-1243
英文摘要	The study area, with arid to semi-humid climates, is located in northern Fars Province, southern Iran. Daily precipitation and temperature data from 22 models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to study climate change for period 2026-2085 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Daily outputs of each CMIP5 model are downscaled to climatic stations over the study area using LARS-WG tool and transient change factors approach. Daily precipitation is downscaled to seven climatic stations while daily temperature downscaled to two stations. Downscaling results indicate that temperature will increase by + 1.85, + 2.5, and + 3.45 degrees C under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively, while precipitation will reduce by 14, 22, and 20.8%, respectively, within the study area. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) analysis, performed for 3-, 6-, 9-, and 12-month time scales, shows that frequency (duration) of normal periods will increase (decrease) under climate change, however, 12-month SPI analysis shows decreased frequency and increased duration for normal periods. Frequency, duration, severity, and intensity of wet periods may increase, decrease, or not change under climate change, depending on the SPI time scale. The study area will experience more frequent, longer-duration, severed, intensified droughts in the future due to global warming. Extreme storm analysis shows that precipitation depth of most frequent storms (2-year return period storms) will increase, but precipitation depth of less frequent storms (10- and 20-year return period storms) will decrease under climate change. Temperature enhancement, precipitation reduction, and longer-duration, severed, intensified droughts will increase water shortage in the future, resulting in water crisis and reduced security of food production over northern Fars Province.
英文关键词	Climate change RCPs Extreme storm Wet and dry periods Northern Fars Province Iran
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000568242400001
WOS关键词	PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; CHANGE SCENARIOS ; WATER-BALANCE ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; INDEXES ; COASTAL
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/326187
作者单位	[Naderi, Mostafa] Inst Adv Studies Basic Sci IASBS, Dept Earth Sci, Zanjan, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Naderi, Mostafa. Extreme climate events under global warming in northern Fars Province, southern Iran[J],2020,142(3-4):1221-1243.
APA	Naderi, Mostafa.(2020).Extreme climate events under global warming in northern Fars Province, southern Iran.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,142(3-4),1221-1243.
MLA	Naderi, Mostafa."Extreme climate events under global warming in northern Fars Province, southern Iran".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 142.3-4(2020):1221-1243.

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