干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106323
	Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran
	Sabbaghi, Mohammad Aghapour; Nazari, Mohammadreza; Araghinejad, Shahab; Soufizadeh, Saeid
通讯作者	Sabbaghi, MA
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0378-3774
EISSN	1873-2283
出版年	2020
卷号	241
英文摘要	Climate change has drastic impacts on water resources and agricultural productivity, especially in arid and semiarid environments. The present study simulated and explored the economic impacts of climate change on the water and agriculture sectors of the Zayandehroud river basin in Iran for the years 2040 and 2070 in three major phases. In phase I, two general circulation models (GCM) (HadCM2 and CGCM3T63), an artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall-runoff model, and crop-water production functions were applied to evaluate the biophysical impacts of climate change on water resources and various crop yields. In Phase II, the aforementioned models were integrated into the hydro-economic spatial equilibrium model of Zayandehroud basin (HE-SEMZ), and the effects of the modeled runoff and socio-economics changes on the economic welfare of the water sector, its distributional consequences, and on temporal-spatial water prices and allocation were simulated. In Phase III, the simulated optimal allocated water to the agriculture sector was introduced into a positive mathematical programming (PMP) model of the agriculture sector to simulate follow-on changes in crop acreage, cropping patterns, and farmers' gross benefit. In this modeling framework, the role of two no-cost adaptation strategies in agriculture, i.e. modifications in crop irrigation and cropping pattern, were also investigated. The results showed that by mid-century, precipitation will be reduced and temperature increased in the Zayandehroud river basin. The direct result of these changes will be a reduction in the basin discharge by 4.3 % in 2040 and 8.1 % in 2070 compared to the base period. The simulated economic value of water showed upward trends under climate change and socio-economic scenarios, reflecting an increase in water scarcity. In response to changes in the scarcity value of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use and allocation. The withdrawal by each sector decreases in response to reduced runoff, although agriculture will be more responsive. The results of the PMP model showed that by choosing optimal cropping pattern and an optimum deficient-irrigation strategy for each crop, there will be good opportunities for farmers to adapt to increasing water scarcity and higher temperatures induced by climate change.
英文关键词	Climate change Cropping-pattern Economic impacts Hydro-economic model River basin
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000566861800003
WOS关键词	SEMIARID REGIONS ; VULNERABILITY ; EQUILIBRIUM ; UNCERTAINTY ; ADAPTATION ; SCENARIO
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/326097
作者单位	[Sabbaghi, Mohammad Aghapour] Islamic Azad Univ, Shoushtar Branch, Dept Agr Management, Shoushtar, Iran; [Nazari, Mohammadreza] Shahid Beheshti Univ, Environm Sci Res Inst, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Econ, GC, POB 19835-196, Tehran, Iran; [Araghinejad, Shahab] Univ Tehran, Coll Agr & Nat Resources, Fac Agron Engn & Technol, Dept Irrigat & Reclamat Engn, Karaj, Iran; [Soufizadeh, Saeid] Shahid Beheshti Univ, Environm Sci Res Inst, Dept Agroecol, GC, POB 19835-196, Tehran, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sabbaghi, Mohammad Aghapour,Nazari, Mohammadreza,Araghinejad, Shahab,et al. Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran[J],2020,241.
APA	Sabbaghi, Mohammad Aghapour,Nazari, Mohammadreza,Araghinejad, Shahab,&Soufizadeh, Saeid.(2020).Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,241.
MLA	Sabbaghi, Mohammad Aghapour,et al."Economic impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in Zayandehroud river basin in Iran".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 241(2020).