干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): An Ensemble Climate-Hydrology Modeling System for Long-Term Streamflow Assessment in a Cold-Arid Watershed

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w12082293
	An Ensemble Climate-Hydrology Modeling System for Long-Term Streamflow Assessment in a Cold-Arid Watershed
	Sun, Jie; Li, Yongping; Wu, Jiansen; Zhang, Hongyu
通讯作者	Li, YP
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2020
卷号	12 期号:8
英文摘要	Climate change can bring about substantial alternatives of temperature and precipitation in the spatial and temporal patterns. These alternatives would impact the hydrological cycle and cause flood or drought events. This study has developed an ensemble climate-hydrology modeling system (ECHMS) for long-term streamflow assessment under changing climate. ECHMS consists of multiple climate scenarios (two global climate models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) emission scenarios), a stepwise-cluster downscaling method and semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model. ECHMS is able to reflect the uncertainties in climate scenarios, tackle the complex relationships (e.g., nonlinear/linear, discrete/continuous) between climate predictors and predictions without functional assumption, and capture the combination of snowmelt- and rainfall-runoff process with a simplicity of operation. Then, the developed ECHMS is applied to Kaidu watershed for analyzing the changes of streamflow during the 21st century. Results show that by 2099, the temperature increment in Kaidu watershed is mainly contributed by the warming in winter and spring. The precipitation will increase obviously in spring and autumn and decrease in winter. Multi-year average streamflow would range from 105.6 to 113.8 m(3)/s across all scenarios during the 21st century with an overall increasing trend. The maximum average increasing rate is 2.43 m(3)/s per decade in October and the minimum is 0.26 m(3)/s per decade in January. Streamflow change in spring is more sensitive to climate change due to its complex runoff generation process. The obtained results can effectively identify future streamflow changing trends and help manage water resources for decision makers.
英文关键词	climate change Kaidu watershed SLURP stepwise cluster streamflow
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000564630400001
WOS关键词	KAIDU RIVER-BASIN ; STEPWISE CLUSTER-ANALYSIS ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; RUNOFF ; PREDICTION ; REGION
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
来源机构	北京师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325934
作者单位	[Sun, Jie] Xiamen Univ Technol, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Xiamen 361024, Peoples R China; [Sun, Jie; Wu, Jiansen] Fujian Engn & Res Ctr Rural Sewage Treatment & Wa, Xiamen 361024, Peoples R China; [Sun, Jie] North China Elect Power Univ, Sino Canada Energy & Environm Res Ctr, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China; [Li, Yongping] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Hongyu] Shougang Environm Ind Co Ltd, Beijing 100041, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Jie,Li, Yongping,Wu, Jiansen,et al. An Ensemble Climate-Hydrology Modeling System for Long-Term Streamflow Assessment in a Cold-Arid Watershed[J]. 北京师范大学,2020,12(8).
APA	Sun, Jie,Li, Yongping,Wu, Jiansen,&Zhang, Hongyu.(2020).An Ensemble Climate-Hydrology Modeling System for Long-Term Streamflow Assessment in a Cold-Arid Watershed.WATER,12(8).
MLA	Sun, Jie,et al."An Ensemble Climate-Hydrology Modeling System for Long-Term Streamflow Assessment in a Cold-Arid Watershed".WATER 12.8(2020).