干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent

Arid

DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0237516
	A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent
	Castle, Stephanie T.; Foley, Patrick; Clifford, Deana L.; Foley, Janet
通讯作者	Foley, J
来源期刊	PLOS ONE
ISSN	1932-6203
出版年	2020
卷号	15 期号:8
英文摘要	While metapopulation theory offers tractable means to understand extinction risks for patchily-distributed endangered species, real systems often feature discrepant patch quality and accessibility, complex influences of environmental stochasticity, and regional and temporal autocorrelation. Spatially structured metapopulation models are flexible and can use real data but often at the cost of generality. Particularly as resources for management of such species are often critically limited, endangered species management guided by metapopulation modeling requires incorporation of biological realism. Here we developed a flexible, stochastic spatially structured metapopulation model of the profoundly endangered Amargosa vole, a microtine rodent with an extant population of only a few hundred individuals within 1km(2)of habitat in the Mojave Desert. Drought and water insecurity are increasing extinction risks considerably. We modelled subpopulation demographics using a Ricker-like model with migration implemented in an incidence function metapopulation model. A set of scenarios was used to assess the effect of anthropogenic stressors or management actions on expected time to extinction (T-e) including: 1) wildland fire, 2) anthropogenically-mediated losses of hydrologic flows, 3) drought, 4) intentional expansion of existing patches into 'megamarshes' (i.e. via restoration/enhancement), and 5) additive impacts of multiple influences. In isolation, marshes could be sources or sinks, but spatial context within the full metapopulation including adjacency could alter relative impacts of subpopulations on all other subpopulations. The greatest reductions in persistence occurred in scenarios simulated with impacts from drought in combination with fire or anthropogenically-mediated losses of hydrologic flows. Optimal actions to improve persistence were to prevent distant and smaller marshes from acting as sinks through strategic creation of megamarshes that act as sources of voles and stepping-stones. This research reinforces that management resources expended without guidance from empirically-based modeling can actually harm species' persistence. This metapopulation-PVA tool could easily be implemented for other patchily-distributed endangered species and allow managers to maximize scarce resources to improve the likelihood of endangered species persistence.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	DOAJ Gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000562668300079
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MICROTUS-CALIFORNICUS ; WETLAND CONSERVATION ; EXTINCTION RISK ; MANAGEMENT ; HABITAT ; PERSISTENCE ; MULTISCALE ; TURNOVER ; PATTERNS
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
来源机构	University of California, Davis
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325820
作者单位	[Castle, Stephanie T.; Clifford, Deana L.; Foley, Janet] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Med & Epidemiol, Sch Vet Med, Davis, CA 95616 USA; [Castle, Stephanie T.; Clifford, Deana L.] Calif Dept Fish & Wildlife, Wildlife Invest Lab, Rancho Cordova, CA USA; [Foley, Patrick] Sacramento State Univ, Dept Biol Sci, Sacramento, CA USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Castle, Stephanie T.,Foley, Patrick,Clifford, Deana L.,et al. A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent[J]. University of California, Davis,2020,15(8).
APA	Castle, Stephanie T.,Foley, Patrick,Clifford, Deana L.,&Foley, Janet.(2020).A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent.PLOS ONE,15(8).
MLA	Castle, Stephanie T.,et al."A stochastic structured metapopulation model to assess recovery scenarios of patchily distributed endangered species: Case study for a Mojave Desert rodent".PLOS ONE 15.8(2020).