干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa

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DOI	10.1111/gcb.15261
	Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa
	Falconnier, Gatien N.; Corbeels, Marc; Boote, Kenneth J.; Affholder, Francois; Adam, Myriam; MacCarthy, Dilys S.; Ruane, Alex C.; Nendel, Claas; Whitbread, Anthony M.; Justes, Eric; Ahuja, Lajpat R.; Akinseye, Folorunso M.; Alou, Isaac N.; Amouzou, Kokou A.; Anapalli, Saseendran S.; Baron, Christian; Basso, Bruno; Baudron, Frederic; Bertuzzi, Patrick; Challinor, Andrew J.; Chen, Yi; Deryng, Delphine; Elsayed, Maha L.; Faye, Babacar; Gaiser, Thomas; Galdos, Marcelo; Gayler, Sebastian; Gerardeaux, Edward; Giner, Michel; Grant, Brian; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Ibrahim, Esther S.; Kamali, Bahareh; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Kim, Soo-Hyung; van der Laan, Michael; Leroux, Louise; Lizaso, Jon I.; Maestrini, Bernardo; Meier, Elizabeth A.; Mequanint, Fasil; Ndoli, Alain; Porter, Cheryl H.; Priesack, Eckart; Ripoche, Dominique; Sida, Tesfaye S.; Singh, Upendra; Smith, Ward N.; Srivastava, Amit; Sinha, Sumit; Tao, Fulu; Thorburn, Peter J.; Timlin, Dennis; Traore, Bouba; Twine, Tracy; Webber, Heidi
通讯作者	Falconnier, GN
来源期刊	GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY
ISSN	1354-1013
EISSN	1365-2486
出版年	2020
卷号	26 期号:10 页码:5942-5964
英文摘要	Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.
英文关键词	crop simulation model ensemble modelling model intercomparison smallholder farming systems uncertainty
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Accepted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000560085800001
WOS关键词	ELEVATED CARBON-DIOXIDE ; CROP GROWTH ; ADAPTATION OPTIONS ; CO2 CONCENTRATION ; SOUTHERN AFRICA ; FOOD SECURITY ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; WATER-BALANCE ; DRY SAVANNA ; WHEAT
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所 ; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ; International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325650
作者单位	[Falconnier, Gatien N.; Corbeels, Marc; Affholder, Francois; Gerardeaux, Edward; Giner, Michel; Leroux, Louise] Univ Montpellier, AIDA, CIRAD, Montpellier, France; [Corbeels, Marc] CIMMYT, Nairobi, Kenya; [Boote, Kenneth J.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Porter, Cheryl H.] Univ Florida, Gainesville, FL USA; [Adam, Myriam] UMR AGAP, CIRAD, Bobo Dioulasso, Burkina Faso; [Adam, Myriam] Univ Montpellier, AGAP, CIRAD, Montpellier SupAgro,INRA, Montpellier, France; [MacCarthy, Dilys S.] Univ Ghana, Sch Agr, Coll Basic & Appl Sci, Soil & Irrigat Res Ctr, Accra, Ghana; [Ruane, Alex C.] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, Climate Impacts Grp, New York, NY 10025 USA; [Nendel, Claas; Ibrahim, Esther S.; Kamali, Bahareh; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Webber, Heidi] Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Muncheberg, Germany; [Whitbread, Anthony M.] Int Crops Res Inst Semi Arid Trop, Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania; [Justes, Eric] Univ Montpellier, PERSYST, CIRAD, Montpellier, France; [Ahuja, Lajpat R.] USDA ARS, Ft Collins, CO 80522 USA; [Akinseye,...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Falconnier, Gatien N.,Corbeels, Marc,Boote, Kenneth J.,et al. Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa[J]. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics,2020,26(10):5942-5964.
APA	Falconnier, Gatien N..,Corbeels, Marc.,Boote, Kenneth J..,Affholder, Francois.,Adam, Myriam.,...&Webber, Heidi.(2020).Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,26(10),5942-5964.
MLA	Falconnier, Gatien N.,et al."Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub-Saharan Africa".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 26.10(2020):5942-5964.