干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Development of a rainfall Stability Index using probabilistic indicators

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106406
	Development of a rainfall Stability Index using probabilistic indicators
	Machiwal, Deepesh; Jha, Madan Kumar; Gupta, Ankit
通讯作者	Machiwal, D
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
ISSN	1470-160X
EISSN	1872-7034
出版年	2020
卷号	115
英文摘要	Temporal variability of rainfall affects earth's climatic systems, and it has a profound impact on the ecosystems, agriculture and society. In this study, a Stability Index (SI) is developed to evaluate long-term rainfall stability using probabilistic indicators [Reliability, Resilience and Vulnerability (RRV)] and geostatistical modelling. Developed index is applied to an Indian arid region using 1979-2013 annual rainfall data. The efficacy of the SI is examined by comparing it with a conventional dispersion statistic viz., coefficient of variation (CV) of the rainfall time series. The 'low' to 'moderate' ranges of Reliability (0.29-0.49), Resilience (0.27-0.50) and Vulnerability (0.35-0.49) suggest that the rainfall in the study area is at a high risk of insufficiency. There are 'strong' to 'moderate' correlation among all the three indicators. It is found that the RRV indicators and SI have no spatial trend and follow normal distribution. 'Spherical', 'circular' and 'exponential' are adjudged to be the best-fit geostatistical models. The scatter plots of RRV indicators and CV, Spearman's rank correlation and Student's t-test revealed that SI precisely account for the long-term stability of annual rainfall. SI is superior to the conventional measure of dispersion as the former addresses risk in terms of frequency of being higher than the mean rainfall and thereby considers ability to return from unsatisfactory to satisfactory condition. Also, the development of SI involves straightforward computation, ease of rainfall data availability at local and regional scales and less time-consuming analysis. It is concluded that the SI based on probability indicators can be a useful tool for analyzing spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and delineating prioritized areas for rainwater management at community, river basin and regional scales. The RRV concept could be further extended to solve future environmental problems under changing climate and socio-economic conditions.
英文关键词	Reliability Resilience Vulnerability Geostatistical modelling Spatial variability Arid region Western India
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000560052300003
WOS关键词	SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION ; WATER-RESOURCES ; RELIABILITY ; VULNERABILITY ; DROUGHT ; RESILIENCE ; PRECIPITATION ; TRENDS ; SYSTEM ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	ICAR Central Arid Zone Research Institute
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325647
作者单位	[Machiwal, Deepesh] Cent Arid Zone Res Inst CAZRI, ICAR, Div Nat Resources, Jodhpur 342003, Rajasthan, India; [Jha, Madan Kumar] Indian Inst Technol IIT Kharagpur, AgFE Dept, Kharagpur 721302, W Bengal, India; [Gupta, Ankit] Indian Space Res Org ISRO, Natl Remote Sensing Ctr, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Machiwal, Deepesh,Jha, Madan Kumar,Gupta, Ankit. Development of a rainfall Stability Index using probabilistic indicators[J]. ICAR Central Arid Zone Research Institute,2020,115.
APA	Machiwal, Deepesh,Jha, Madan Kumar,&Gupta, Ankit.(2020).Development of a rainfall Stability Index using probabilistic indicators.ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS,115.
MLA	Machiwal, Deepesh,et al."Development of a rainfall Stability Index using probabilistic indicators".ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS 115(2020).