干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The Long-Term Trend Analysis and Scenario Simulation of the Carbon Price Based on the Energy-Economic Regulation

Arid

DOI	10.1108/IJCCSM-02-2020-0020
	The Long-Term Trend Analysis and Scenario Simulation of the Carbon Price Based on the Energy-Economic Regulation
	Li, Zhao-Peng; Yang, Li; Li, Si-Rui; Yuan, Xiaoling
通讯作者	Yuan, XL
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN	1756-8692
EISSN	1756-8706
出版年	2020
卷号	12 期号:5 页码:653-668
英文摘要	Purpose China's national carbon market will be officially launched in 2020, when it will become the world's largest carbon market. However, China's carbon market is faced with various major challenges. One of the most important challenges is its impact on the social and economic development of arid and semi-arid regions. By simulating the carbon price trends under different economic development and energy consumption levels, this study aims to help the government can plan ahead to formulate various countermeasures to promote the integration of arid and semi-arid regions into the national carbon market. Design/methodology/approach To achieve this goal, this paper builds a back propagation neural network model, takes the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) as the research object and uses the mean impact value method to screen out the important driving variables of European Union Allowance (EUA) price, including economic development (Stoxx600, Stoxx50, FTSE, CAC40 and DAX), black energy (coal and Brent), clean energy (gas, PV Crystalox Solar and Nordex) and carbon price alternatives Certification Emission Reduction (CER). Finally, this paper sets up six scenarios by combining the above variables to simulate the impact of different economic development and energy consumption levels on carbon price trends. Findings Under the control of the unchanged CER price level, economic development, black energy and clean energy development will all have a certain impact on the EUA price trends. When economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development are on the rise, the EUA price level will increase. When the three types of variables show a downward trend, except for the sluggish development of clean energy, which will cause the EUA price to rise sharply, the EUA price trend will also decline accordingly in the remaining scenarios. Originality/value On the one hand, this paper incorporates driving factors of carbon price into the construction of carbon price prediction system, which not only has higher prediction accuracy but also can simulate the long-term price trend. On the other hand, this paper uses scenario simulation to show the size, direction and duration of the impact of economic development, black energy consumption and clean energy development on carbon prices in a more intuitive way.
英文关键词	Carbon price EU ETS Neural network model Situational simulation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000556926800001
WOS关键词	MODELS
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325485
作者单位	[Li, Zhao-Peng; Li, Si-Rui; Yuan, Xiaoling] Xi An Jiao Tong Univ, Sch Econ & Finance, Xian, Peoples R China; [Yang, Li] Shaanxi Normal Univ, Int Business Sch, Xian, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Zhao-Peng,Yang, Li,Li, Si-Rui,et al. The Long-Term Trend Analysis and Scenario Simulation of the Carbon Price Based on the Energy-Economic Regulation[J],2020,12(5):653-668.
APA	Li, Zhao-Peng,Yang, Li,Li, Si-Rui,&Yuan, Xiaoling.(2020).The Long-Term Trend Analysis and Scenario Simulation of the Carbon Price Based on the Energy-Economic Regulation.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT,12(5),653-668.
MLA	Li, Zhao-Peng,et al."The Long-Term Trend Analysis and Scenario Simulation of the Carbon Price Based on the Energy-Economic Regulation".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATE CHANGE STRATEGIES AND MANAGEMENT 12.5(2020):653-668.