干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions, using different time series models and RDI index

Arid

DOI	10.2166/wcc.2019.009
	Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions, using different time series models and RDI index
	Moghimi, Mohammad Mehdi; Zarei, Abdol Rassoul; Mahmoudi, Mohammad Reza
通讯作者	Moghimi, MM
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN	2040-2244
出版年	2020
卷号	11 期号:3 页码:633-654
英文摘要	Confronting drought and reducing its impacts requires modeling and forecasting of this phenomenon. In this research, the ability of different time series models (the ARIMA models with different structures) were evaluated to model and predict seasonal drought based on the RDI drought index in the south of Iran. For this purpose, the climatic data of 16 synoptic stations from 1980 to 2010 were used. Evaluation of time series models was based on trial and error. Results showed drought classes varied between 'very wet' to 'severely dry'. The more occurrence frequency of 'severely dry' class compared to other drought classes represent the necessity of drought assessment and the importance of managing the effects of this phenomenon in the study area. Results showed that the highest severity of drought occurred at Abadeh, Shiraz, Fasa, Sirjan, Kerman, Shahre Babak and Saravan stations. According to selecting the best model fitted to the computed three-month RDI time series, results indicated that the MA model based on the Innovations method resulted in maximum cases with the best performance (37.5% of cases). The AR model based on the Yule-Walker method resulted in minimum cases with the best performance (6.3% of cases) in seasonal drought forecasting.
英文关键词	drought modelling forecasting reconnaissance drought index time series models
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000555970900003
WOS关键词	STOCHASTIC-MODELS ; PREDICTION ; BASIN
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325436
作者单位	[Moghimi, Mohammad Mehdi] Fasa Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Water Engn, Fasa, Iran; [Zarei, Abdol Rassoul] Fasa Univ, Fac Agr, Dept Range & Watershed Engn, Fasa, Iran; [Mahmoudi, Mohammad Reza] Fasa Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Stat, Fasa, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Moghimi, Mohammad Mehdi,Zarei, Abdol Rassoul,Mahmoudi, Mohammad Reza. Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions, using different time series models and RDI index[J],2020,11(3):633-654.
APA	Moghimi, Mohammad Mehdi,Zarei, Abdol Rassoul,&Mahmoudi, Mohammad Reza.(2020).Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions, using different time series models and RDI index.JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE,11(3),633-654.
MLA	Moghimi, Mohammad Mehdi,et al."Seasonal drought forecasting in arid regions, using different time series models and RDI index".JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE 11.3(2020):633-654.