干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models

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DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02787-2
	Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models
	Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Bashir, Jasia; Rashid, Irfan
通讯作者	Romshoo, SA
来源期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN	0165-0009
EISSN	1573-1480
出版年	2020
卷号	162 期号:3 页码:1473-1491
英文摘要	The study investigates the future climate change in the Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Himalaya, India, by the end of the twenty-first century under 3 emission scenarios and highlights the changes in the distribution of the prevalent climate zones in the region. The multi-model climate high-resolution projections for the baseline period (1961-1990) are validated against the observed climate variables from 8 meteorological stations in the region. The temperature projections from the GFDL CM2.1 model are found in good agreement with the observations; however, no single model investigated in the present study reasonably simulates precipitation and therefore multi-model ensemble is used for precipitation projections. The average annual temperature is projected to increase by 4.5 degrees C, 3.98 degrees C, and 6.93 degrees C by the end of the twenty-first century under A1B, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In contrast, an insignificant variation in precipitation projection is observed under all the 3 scenarios. The analysis indicates that, unlike the 13 climate zones under the updated Koppen-Geiger climate classification scheme, the J&K Himalaya broadly falls into 10 main climate zones only namely, "3 subtropical (similar to 11%), 4 temperate (similar to 19%), and 3 cold desert (similar to 70%) zones". The projected climate change under the 3 emission scenarios indicates significant changes in the distribution of prevalent climate zones. The cold desert climate zone in the Ladakh region would shrink by similar to 22% and correspondingly the subtropical and temperate zones would expand due to the projected climate change. This information is vital for framing robust policies for adaptation and mitigation of the climate change impacts on various socio-economic and ecological sectors in the region.
英文关键词	Climate change Climate classification Downscaled climate projections Kashmir Himalaya
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000553764600001
WOS关键词	SATELLITE PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS ; CHANGING CLIMATE ; NORTHWESTERN HIMALAYA ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; WORLD MAP ; GLACIER ; BASIN ; CLASSIFICATION ; VALLEY ; SENSITIVITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325285
作者单位	[Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad; Bashir, Jasia; Rashid, Irfan] Univ Kashmir, Dept Earth Sci, Srinagar 190006, Jammu & Kashmir, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad,Bashir, Jasia,Rashid, Irfan. Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models[J],2020,162(3):1473-1491.
APA	Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad,Bashir, Jasia,&Rashid, Irfan.(2020).Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models.CLIMATIC CHANGE,162(3),1473-1491.
MLA	Romshoo, Shakil Ahmad,et al."Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models".CLIMATIC CHANGE 162.3(2020):1473-1491.