干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming limits over East-Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10584-020-02725-2
	Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming limits over East-Central Asia
	Zhang, Meng; Yu, Haipeng; King, Andrew D.; Wei, Yun; Huang, Jianping; Ren, Yu
通讯作者	Yu, HP
来源期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN	0165-0009
EISSN	1573-1480
出版年	2020
卷号	162 期号:2 页码:603-619
英文摘要	East-Central Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive regions to climate change, and the variability of extreme precipitation attracts great attention due to the large population and the importance of its economy. Here, three special runs with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are used to project the changes in representative extreme precipitation indices (Rx1day, Rx5day, R95p, SDII) over East-Central Asia under the 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C Paris Agreement limits. The results indicate that Rx1day and Rx5day will increase by 28% and 15%, respectively, under the 1.5 degrees C warming level relative to the historical period (1971-2000). Most areas over East-Central Asia are projected to experience an accelerated increase in response to a further 0.5 degrees C warming. Specifically, humid areas (HAs) are projected to experience a greater increase in R95p annual days and area fraction, whereas arid and semiarid areas (ASAs) may have threefold higher risks. The proportion of extreme precipitation in total will increase similar to 10% in most HAs in response to the 0.5 degrees C additional warming. Holding global warming at 1.5 degrees C instead of 2 degrees C reduces the occurrence of R95p annual days by similar to 3 days/year in humid areas and similar to 1 day/year in ASAs. For SDII, most HAs will experience 0.2-0.6 mm/day and 0.2-0.4 mm/day increases in 1.5 degrees C or 2 degrees C warming limits, especially in Southeast China and the Himalayas. Therefore, limiting global warming to under 1.5 degrees C is beneficial to reducing the occurrence and associated impact of precipitation extremes in East-Central Asia.
英文关键词	Extreme precipitation 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming limits East-Central Asia Arid and semiarid areas Humid areas
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000553321300001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE EXTREMES ; HEAVY-PRECIPITATION ; FUTURE CHANGES ; TEMPERATURE ; 2-DEGREES-C ; INDEXES ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; CHINA ; DRYLANDS ; TRENDS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	兰州大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325260
作者单位	[Zhang, Meng; Yu, Haipeng] Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Land Surface Proc & Climate Change Cold &, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Meng; Wei, Yun; Ren, Yu] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [Yu, Haipeng] CMA, Key Lab Arid Climat Change & Disaster Reduct Gans, Key Open Lab Arid Climat Change & Disaster Reduct, Inst Arid Meteorol, Lanzhou, Peoples R China; [King, Andrew D.] Univ Melbourne, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic 3010, Australia; [Huang, Jianping] Lanzhou Univ, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Western Ecol Safety, Lanzhou, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Meng,Yu, Haipeng,King, Andrew D.,et al. Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming limits over East-Central Asia[J]. 兰州大学,2020,162(2):603-619.
APA	Zhang, Meng,Yu, Haipeng,King, Andrew D.,Wei, Yun,Huang, Jianping,&Ren, Yu.(2020).Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming limits over East-Central Asia.CLIMATIC CHANGE,162(2),603-619.
MLA	Zhang, Meng,et al."Greater probability of extreme precipitation under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C warming limits over East-Central Asia".CLIMATIC CHANGE 162.2(2020):603-619.