干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Potential future changes of terrestrial water storage based on climate projections by ensemble model simulations

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103635
	Potential future changes of terrestrial water storage based on climate projections by ensemble model simulations
	Jia, Binghao; Cai, Ximing; Zhao, Fang; Liu, Jianguo; Chen, Si; Luo, Xin; Xie, Zhenghui; Xu, Jianhui
通讯作者	Jia, BH
来源期刊	ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES
ISSN	0309-1708
EISSN	1872-9657
出版年	2020
卷号	142
英文摘要	An accurate estimation of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is crucial for water resource management and drought monitoring. However, the uncertainties in model physics, surface parameters and meteorological data often limit the accuracy of land surface hydrological models in estimating TWS. In this study, a multi-model-based framework was developed to predict TWS in China by 2050 using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method and GRACE satellite observations. Compared to GRACE observations, our BMA-based TWS anomaly (TWSA) estimations reduce root mean square errors by 10-16% and increase correlation coefficients by 26-46% over semihumid and semi-arid basins than simple arithmetical averaging for the validation period (2008-2016). At the same time, BMA shows decreasing root mean square differences (10-12%) over humid basins. The calibrated BMA weights were then applied to future projections of TWSA under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP): RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0. The overall rate of TWSA for the future period (2021-2050) was detected with the same direction as that from past decades (2003-2016), but with larger decreasing values. Especially for the Haihe basin in North China, BMA-based TWSA would decrease faster by about 19% for RCP 2.6 and 26% for RCP 6.0. These results suggest a decreasing trend in future TWS over most of the basins in China due to combined effects of global warming and human activities, which suggests likely aggravated risk of water shortage and a growing need for adaptive water resources management.
英文关键词	Terrestrial water storage Future projections Bayesian model averaging Ensemble simulations Representative Concentration Pathway
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000550807600005
WOS关键词	SOIL-MOISTURE ; GROUNDWATER DEPLETION ; GRAVITY RECOVERY ; INTEGRATED MODEL ; BIAS CORRECTION ; RIVER-BASIN ; GRACE ; LAND ; CHINA ; VARIABILITY
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/325122
作者单位	[Jia, Binghao; Chen, Si; Luo, Xin; Xie, Zhenghui] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Jia, Binghao; Xu, Jianhui] Guangzhou Inst Geog, Key Lab Guangdong Utilizat Remote Sensing & Geog, Guangzhou, Peoples R China; [Jia, Binghao; Cai, Ximing] Univ Illinois, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Ven Te Chow Hydrosyst Lab, Urbana, IL USA; [Zhao, Fang] East China Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China; [Zhao, Fang] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany; [Jia, Binghao; Liu, Jianguo] Huaihua Univ, Key Lab Intelligent Control Technol Wuling Mt Eco, Huaihua, Peoples R China; [Jia, Binghao; Liu, Jianguo] Huaihua Univ, Sch Math & Computat Sci, Huaihua, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jia, Binghao,Cai, Ximing,Zhao, Fang,et al. Potential future changes of terrestrial water storage based on climate projections by ensemble model simulations[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2020,142.
APA	Jia, Binghao.,Cai, Ximing.,Zhao, Fang.,Liu, Jianguo.,Chen, Si.,...&Xu, Jianhui.(2020).Potential future changes of terrestrial water storage based on climate projections by ensemble model simulations.ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES,142.
MLA	Jia, Binghao,et al."Potential future changes of terrestrial water storage based on climate projections by ensemble model simulations".ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES 142(2020).