干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus

Arid

DOI	10.3390/su12103996
	Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus
	Ma, Weijing; Meng, Lihong; Wei, Feili; Opp, Christian; Yang, Dewei
通讯作者	Opp, C
来源期刊	SUSTAINABILITY
EISSN	2071-1050
出版年	2020
卷号	12 期号:10
英文摘要	Water scarcity has seriously threatened the sustainable development of Zhangjiakou City, an arid agricultural area in North China, and the ecological security of its neighboring areas. In this study, a system dynamics model is established based on variable sensitivity analysis and is employed to simulate water demand (2015-2035) in four designed alternative development scenarios in Zhangjiakou City. The results show that: (1) the variables related to irrigation farmland are the main driving factors of water demand, especially the area and water use quota. (2) The total water demand will rise continually in the current development scenario and economic priority scenario, and the proportion of agricultural water demand will drop to 67% and 63%, respectively. It will decline continually in the water-saving priority scenario and balanced development scenario, and the proportion of agricultural water demand will drop to 56% and 57%, respectively. (3) Water consumption per ten thousand yuan of GDP will fall to around 20 m(3) in 2035 in each scenario, indicating that the reduction of water demand only by slowing down economic growth cannot improve the efficiency of water use. The research results will be beneficial to extract feasible strategies and policies for balancing economic development and water conservation.
英文关键词	water demand sensitivity analysis system dynamics scenarios simulation Zhangjiakou city
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000543421400054
WOS关键词	SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL ; RESOURCES CARRYING-CAPACITY ; RIVER-BASIN ; MULTIDIMENSIONAL-ANALYSIS ; GLOBAL CLIMATE ; POVERTY INDEX ; OPTIMIZATION ; MANAGEMENT ; IMPACT ; CHALLENGES
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	北京大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/324847
作者单位	[Ma, Weijing; Opp, Christian] Philipps Univ Marburg, Fac Geog, D-35032 Marburg, Germany; [Meng, Lihong] Gannan Normal Univ, Coll Geog & Environm Project, Ganzhou 341000, Peoples R China; [Wei, Feili] Peking Univ, Coll Urban & Environm Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Earth Surface Proc, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China; [Yang, Dewei] Southwest Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Chongqing 400715, Peoples R China; [Yang, Dewei] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Urban Environm, Key Lab Urban Environm & Hlth, Xiamen 361021, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma, Weijing,Meng, Lihong,Wei, Feili,et al. Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus[J]. 北京大学,2020,12(10).
APA	Ma, Weijing,Meng, Lihong,Wei, Feili,Opp, Christian,&Yang, Dewei.(2020).Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus.SUSTAINABILITY,12(10).
MLA	Ma, Weijing,et al."Sensitive Factors Identification and Scenario Simulation of Water Demand in the Arid Agricultural Area Based on the Socio-Economic-Environment Nexus".SUSTAINABILITY 12.10(2020).