干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in northwest China based on CORDEX-EA

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104868
	Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in northwest China based on CORDEX-EA
	Yang, Linshan; Feng, Qi; Adamowski, Jan F.; Yin, Zhenliang; Wen, Xiaohu; Wu, Min; Jia, Bing; Hao, Qiang
通讯作者	Yang, LS ; Feng, Q
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
出版年	2020
卷号	238
英文摘要	One of the major components of the hydrological cycle, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) represents the maximum amount of water transferred from the land surface to the atmosphere. Vital to quantifying crop water needs, accurate predictions of ET0 are particularly critical in arid regions, where they allow for informed water resources management adjustments through changes to agricultural irrigation rates and scheduling. Drawing upon 84 meteorological stations in northwest China, spatiotemporal variations in present-day ET0 were investigated. Support vector regression (SVR), Extreme learning machine (ELM), and Multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) - three machine learning (ML) techniques - served to establish relationships between historical ET0 and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - East Asia (CORDEX-EA), drawn from the output data sets of each of three regional climate models (RCM): Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), Regional Climate Model version 4.0 (RegCM4) and the Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5). The ML-RCM combinations were calibrated and validated with separate batches (66:34, respectively) of historical ET0 data, and their respective performance and level of uncertainty were assessed statistically. In the historical period (1960-2017) ET0 declined by -0.15, -0.75, and - 0.42 mm y(-1) in north Xinjiang, south Xinjiang, and Qinghai region, respectively, and increased in the Hexi Corridor by 0.5 mm y(-1). For all four regions, the MARS-WRF and MARS-MM5 combinations performed well and showed greater predictive accuracy than either ELM-WRF or ELM-MM5 combinations. Performances in predicting future (2035-2050) ET0 from CORDEX-EA outputs based on regional climate predictions RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, depended to a greater extent on the RCM outputs that were selected, rather than the modeling methods. Future ET0 predicted from RCMs generally exhibit increasing trends, and more significantly under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The representation and characterization ability of RCMs to future climate change is crucial for future ET0 projection. Uncertainty analysis, achieved by employing multiple RCMs to predict future ET0, is highly recommended. Knowledge of trends in future ET0 can help guide the management of agricultural irrigation in oases and support decision-makers engaged in water resources management in the future.
英文关键词	CORDEX-EA Reference evapotranspiration Machine learning algorithm Northwest China
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000525323500010
WOS关键词	REFERENCE CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; EXTREME LEARNING-MACHINE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; RIVER-BASIN ; REGRESSION ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; TRENDS ; MODEL
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/324325
作者单位	[Yang, Linshan; Feng, Qi; Yin, Zhenliang; Wen, Xiaohu; Wu, Min; Jia, Bing] Chinese Acad Sci, Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, Peoples R China; [Adamowski, Jan F.] McGill Univ, Fac Agr & Environm Sci, Dept Bioresource Engn, Quebec City, PQ H9X 3V9, Canada; [Hao, Qiang] Wuwei Hydrol & Water Resources Survey Bur Gansu P, Wuwei 733000, Gansu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Linshan,Feng, Qi,Adamowski, Jan F.,et al. Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in northwest China based on CORDEX-EA[J],2020,238.
APA	Yang, Linshan.,Feng, Qi.,Adamowski, Jan F..,Yin, Zhenliang.,Wen, Xiaohu.,...&Hao, Qiang.(2020).Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in northwest China based on CORDEX-EA.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,238.
MLA	Yang, Linshan,et al."Spatio-temporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in northwest China based on CORDEX-EA".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 238(2020).