干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Estimation of the uncertainty of hydrologic predictions in a karstic Mediterranean watershed

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137131
	Estimation of the uncertainty of hydrologic predictions in a karstic Mediterranean watershed
	Nerantzaki, Sofia D.; Hristopulos, Dionissios T.; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P.
通讯作者	Nerantzaki, SD
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2020
卷号	717
英文摘要	The Koiliaris River basin is a semi-arid Mediterranean karstic watershed where water needs during the summer are exclusively covered by the karstic springs flow. Uncertainty assessment of the hydrologic projections for karstic watersheds may reveal possible water deficits that cannot otherwise be taken into account. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) along with a karstic model (Karst-SWAT) is used to assess the composite spring and surface flow. The parameter uncertainty of both the surface and karstic flow models is estimated by combining the SUFI2 interface and the @RISK by PALISADE software. Eleven combinations of five Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) provide input to the hydrologic models. Representative rainfall time series for certain scenarios are stochastically modeled with the LARS weather generator. Monte Carlo simulations are used to investigate the effect of input internal variability on the flow output. The uncertainty of karstic flow due to the parameter uncertainty of the SWAT and Karst-SWAT models is 10.0% (Coefficient of Variation), which is comparable to the estimated uncertainty due to climate change scenarios (10.1%) until 2059. The combined uncertainty for the total flow at the basin exit due to both models' parameter uncertainty is 6.6%, comparable to the uncertainty due to the internal variability (5.6%). The total uncertainty of karstic flow, combining model parameter uncertainty and the internal variability of the climate scenarios is 11.0%. The total uncertainty estimate is used in conjunction with the lowest karstic flow projection to assess the most adverse scenario for the future mean annual karstic flow. This is the first study which estimates the combined uncertainty of surface and karstic flow prediction due to model parameter uncertainty and internal variability. Our study provides a rigorous methodology for uncertainty estimation and analysis which is transferable to other karstic regions of the world. (c) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Mediterranean karstic watershed Parameter uncertainty Internal variability Karst-SWAT Climate change uncertainty Uncertainty partition
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000519994800052
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; MODEL STRUCTURE ; SEDIMENT YIELD ; RIVER-BASIN ; SWAT MODEL ; FRAMEWORK ; PARAMETER ; IMPACT ; PROPAGATION ; SIMULATION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/324310
作者单位	[Nerantzaki, Sofia D.; Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P.] Tech Univ Crete, Sch Environm Engn, Khania, Greece; [Hristopulos, Dionissios T.] Tech Univ Crete, Sch Mineral Resources Engn, Khania, Greece
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nerantzaki, Sofia D.,Hristopulos, Dionissios T.,Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P.. Estimation of the uncertainty of hydrologic predictions in a karstic Mediterranean watershed[J],2020,717.
APA	Nerantzaki, Sofia D.,Hristopulos, Dionissios T.,&Nikolaidis, Nikolaos P..(2020).Estimation of the uncertainty of hydrologic predictions in a karstic Mediterranean watershed.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,717.
MLA	Nerantzaki, Sofia D.,et al."Estimation of the uncertainty of hydrologic predictions in a karstic Mediterranean watershed".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 717(2020).