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DOI	10.1007/s10113-020-01659-w
	How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?
	Drobinski, Philippe 1; Da Silva, Nicolas 1; Bastin, Sophie 2; Mailler, Sylvain 1; Muller, Caroline 1; Ahrens, Bodo 3; Christensen, Ole B.4; Lionello, Piero 5
通讯作者	Drobinski, Philippe
来源期刊	REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN	1436-3798
EISSN	1436-378X
出版年	2020
卷号	20 期号:3
英文摘要	Nearly all regions in the world are projected to become dryer in a warming climate. Here, we investigate the Mediterranean region, often referred to as a climate change hot spot. From regional climate simulations, it is shown that although enhanced warming and drying over land is projected, the spatial pattern displays high variability. Indeed, drying is largely caused by enhanced warming over land. However, in Northern Europe, soil moisture alleviates warming induced drying by up to 50% due to humidity uptake from land. In already arid regions, the Mediterranean Sea is generally the only humidity source, and drying is only due to land warming. However, over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, enhanced warming over land is insufficient to explain the extreme drying. These regions are also isolated from humidity advection by heat lows, which are cyclonic circulation anomalies associated with surface heating over land. The cyclonic circulation scales with the temperature gradient between land and ocean which increases with climate change, reinforcing the cyclonic circulation over Sahara and the Iberian Peninsula, both diverting the zonal advection of humidity to the south of the Iberian Peninsula. The dynamics are therefore key in the warming and drying of the Mediterranean region, with extreme aridification over the Sahara and Iberian Peninsula. In these regions, the risk for human health due to the thermal load which accounts for air temperature and humidity is therefore projected to increase significantly with climate change at a level of extreme danger.
英文关键词	Water cycle Warming Dryness Clausius-Clapeyron law Heat lows Regional climate change Human health Europe Mediterranean HyMeX MED-CORDEX
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	France ; Germany ; Denmark ; Italy
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000545680400002
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HEAT LOW ; IBERIAN PENINSULA ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; CIRCULATION ; IMPACT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319745
作者单位	1.Sorbonne Univ, PSL Res Univ, Inst Polytech Paris, LMD IPSL,Ecole Polytech,ENS,CNRS, Palaiseau, France; 2.Sorbonne Univ, Univ Paris Saclay, LATMOS IPSL, UVSQ,CNRS, Guyancourt, France; 3.Goethe Univ Frankfurt, Inst Atmospher & Environm Sci, Frankfurt, Germany; 4.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark; 5.CMCC, Lecce, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Drobinski, Philippe,Da Silva, Nicolas,Bastin, Sophie,et al. How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?[J],2020,20(3).
APA	Drobinski, Philippe.,Da Silva, Nicolas.,Bastin, Sophie.,Mailler, Sylvain.,Muller, Caroline.,...&Lionello, Piero.(2020).How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,20(3).
MLA	Drobinski, Philippe,et al."How warmer and drier will the Mediterranean region be at the end of the twenty-first century?".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 20.3(2020).