干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 degrees C

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11069-020-04097-3
	Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 degrees C
	Marengo, Jose A.1; Cunha, Ana Paula M. A.1; Nobre, Carlos A.2,3; Ribeiro Neto, Germano G.1; Magalhaes, Antonio R.4; Torres, Roger R.5; Sampaio, Gilvan 7; Alexandre, Felipe 7; Alves, Lincoln M.6; Cuartas, Luz A.1; Deusdara, Karinne R. L.1; Alvala, Regina C. S.1
通讯作者	Marengo, Jose A.
来源期刊	NATURAL HAZARDS
ISSN	0921-030X
EISSN	1573-0840
出版年	2020
卷号	103 期号:2 页码:2589-2611
英文摘要	Historically, during periods of extreme drought, food security in the drylands of the semiarid region of Northeast Brazil (NEB) is under severe risk due to agricultural collapse. The drought that started in 2012 continues to highlight the vulnerability of this region, and arid conditions have been detected during the last years mainly in the central semiarid region, covering almost 2% of the NEB. Climate projections show an increase in the area under water stress condition, covering 49% and 54% of the NEB region by 2700 and 2100, respectively, with a higher likelihood with warming above 4 degrees C. The projections of vegetative stress conditions derived from the empirical model for Vegetation Health Index (VHI) are consistent with projections from vegetation models, where semi-desert types typical of arid conditions would replace the current semiarid bushland vegetation (caatinga) by 2100. Due to the impacts of the 2012-2017 drought, public policies have been implemented to reduce social and economic vulnerability for small farmers but are not enough as poor population continues to be affected. In the long term, to make the semiarid less vulnerable to drought, strengthened integrated water resources management and a proactive drought policy are needed to restructure the economy. Integrating drought monitoring and seasonal climate forecasting provides means of assessing impacts of climate variability and change, leading to disaster risk reduction through early warning. Lastly, there is an urgent need for integrated assessments because the possibility that under permanent drought conditions with warming above 4 degrees C, arid conditions would prevail in NEB since 2060.
英文关键词	Vegetation stress hazard Climate change Caatinga Northeast Brazil Climate change impacts Risk of aridization
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Brazil
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000541003400001
WOS关键词	GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; VEGETATION ; DYNAMICS ; STATE ; DESERTIFICATION ; TEMPERATURE ; INDEX ; CEARA
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319706
作者单位	1.Natl Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat Disasters, BR-12247016 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil; 2.Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Adv Studies, BR-05508060 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil; 3.World Resources Inst Brazil, BR-05422030 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil; 4.CGEE, Ctr Strateg Studies, BR-70308200 Brasilia, DF, Brazil; 5.Univ Fed Itajuba, Nat Resources Inst, BR-37500903 Itajuba, MG, Brazil; 6.Natl Inst Space Res, Earth Syst Sci Ctr, BR-12227010 Sao Jose Dos Campos, SP, Brazil; 7.Natl Inst Space Res, Ctr Weather Forecasting & Climate Studies, BR-12230000 Cachoeira Paulista, SP, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marengo, Jose A.,Cunha, Ana Paula M. A.,Nobre, Carlos A.,et al. Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 degrees C[J],2020,103(2):2589-2611.
APA	Marengo, Jose A..,Cunha, Ana Paula M. A..,Nobre, Carlos A..,Ribeiro Neto, Germano G..,Magalhaes, Antonio R..,...&Alvala, Regina C. S..(2020).Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 degrees C.NATURAL HAZARDS,103(2),2589-2611.
MLA	Marengo, Jose A.,et al."Assessing drought in the drylands of northeast Brazil under regional warming exceeding 4 degrees C".NATURAL HAZARDS 103.2(2020):2589-2611.