干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Trends, change points and spatial variability in extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2017 in China

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DOI	10.2166/nh.2020.095
	Trends, change points and spatial variability in extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2017 in China
	Li, Linchao 1,2; Zou, Yufeng 2; Li, Yi 1,2,3; Lin, Haixia 1,2; Liu, De Li 4,5,6; Wang, Bin 4; Yao, Ning 1,2; Song, Songbai 1,2
通讯作者	Li, Yi
来源期刊	HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
ISSN	0029-1277
EISSN	2224-7955
出版年	2020
卷号	51 期号:3 页码:484-504
英文摘要	Extreme precipitation events vary with different sub-regions, sites and years and show complex characteristics. In this study, the temporal variations, trends with significance and change points in the annual time series of 10 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) at 552 sites and in seven sub-regions were analyzed using the modified Mann-Kendall test and sequential Mann-Kendall analysis. Three representative (extremely wet, normal and extremely dry) years from 1961 to 2017 were selected by the largest, 50%, and smallest empirical frequency values in China. The spatiotemporal changes in the EPIs during the three representative years were analyzed in detail. The results showed that during 1961-2017, both the consecutive wet or dry days decreased significantly, while the number of heavy precipitation days had no significant trend, and the other seven wet EPIs increased insignificantly. The abrupt change years of the 10 EPIs occurred 32 and 40 times from 1963 to 1978 and from 1990 to 2016, respectively, regardless of sub-region. The extremely dry (or wet) events mainly occurred in western (or southwestern) China, implying a higher extreme event risk. The extremely wet, normal and extremely dry events from 1961 to 2017 occurred in 2016, 1997 and 2011 with empirical frequencies of 1.7%, 50% and 98.3%, respectively. In addition, 1998 was the second-most extremely wet year (empirical frequency was 3.7%). The monthly precipitation values were larger from February to August in 1998, forming a much earlier flood peak than that of 2016. The 10 EPIs had close connections with Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes during the 12 months of 1998 and 2016. This study provides useful references for disaster prevention in China.
英文关键词	abrupt change point empirical frequencies extreme precipitation index NDVI representative year trend
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; Australia
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000540590800008
WOS关键词	RIVER-BASIN ; ARID REGION ; TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE ; FREQUENCY ; STREAMFLOW ; NORTHWEST ; FLOODS ; TESTS ; CROP
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
来源机构	西北农林科技大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319581
作者单位	1.Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Water Resources & Architectural Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 2.Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Inst Water Saving Agr Arid Areas China, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 3.Northwest Agr & Forestry Univ, Key Lab Agr Water & Soil Engn, Educ Minist, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; 4.Wagga Wagga Agr Inst, NSW Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia; 5.Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia; 6.Univ New South Wales, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Linchao,Zou, Yufeng,Li, Yi,et al. Trends, change points and spatial variability in extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2017 in China[J]. 西北农林科技大学,2020,51(3):484-504.
APA	Li, Linchao.,Zou, Yufeng.,Li, Yi.,Lin, Haixia.,Liu, De Li.,...&Song, Songbai.(2020).Trends, change points and spatial variability in extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2017 in China.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH,51(3),484-504.
MLA	Li, Linchao,et al."Trends, change points and spatial variability in extreme precipitation events from 1961 to 2017 in China".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH 51.3(2020):484-504.