干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.3390/f11050530
	Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios
	Vargas-Piedra, Gonzalo 1; Valdez-Cepeda, Ricardo David 2; Lopez-Santos, Armando 1; Flores-Hernandez, Arnoldo 1; Hernandez-Quiroz, Nathalie S.3; Martinez-Salvador, Martin 3
通讯作者	Martinez-Salvador, Martin
来源期刊	FORESTS
EISSN	1999-4907
出版年	2020
卷号	11 期号:5
英文摘要	Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphiliticaZucc.) is a shrub species distributed throughout the Chihuahuan Desert in northern Mexico and southern of the United States of America. Candelilla has an economic importance due to natural wax it produces. The economic importance and the intense harvest of the wax from candelilla seems to gradually reduce the natural populations of this species. The essence of this research was to project the potential distribution of candelilla populations under different climate change scenarios in its natural distribution area in North America. We created a spatial database with points of candelilla presence, according to the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF). A spatial analysis to predict the potential distribution of the species using Maxent software was performed. Thirteen of 19 variables from the WorldClim database were used for two scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 as a conservative and 8.5 as extreme). We used climate projections from three global climate models (GCMs) (Max Planck institute, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the Met Office Hadley), each simulating the two scenarios. The final predicted distribution areas were classified in five on-site possible candelilla habitat suitability categories: none (< 19%), low (20-38%), medium (39-57%), high (58-76%) and very high (> 77%). According to the area under the curve (0.970), the models and scenarios used showed an adequate fit to project the current and future distribution of candelilla. The variable that contributed the most in the three GCMs and the two RCPs was the mean temperature of the coldest quarter with an influence of 45.7% (Jackknife test). The candelilla's distribution area for North America was predicted as approximately 19.1 million hectares under the current conditions for the high habitat suitability; however, the projection for the next fifty years is not promising because the GCMs projected a reduction of more than 6.9 million hectares using either the conservative or extreme scenarios. The results are useful for conservation of the species in the area with vulnerable wild populations, as well as for the selection of new sites suitable for the species growth and cultivation while facing climate change.
英文关键词	species distribution environmental change scenarios candelilla spatial analysis
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Mexico
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000542736000028
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION ; MODELS ; PREDICTION ; MAXENT ; WILDLIFE ; HABITAT ; IMPROVE ; WAX ; L.
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS研究方向	Forestry
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319525
作者单位	1.Univ Autonoma Chapingo, Unidad Reg Univ Zonas Aridas, Apdo Postal 8, Durango 35230, Mexico; 2.Univ Autonoma Chapingo, Ctr Reg Univ Norte Ctr, Apartado Postal 196, Zacatecas 98001, Zacatecas, Mexico; 3.Univ Autonoma Chihuahua, Fac Zootecnia & Ecol, Perifer Francisco R Almada Km 1, Chihuahua 31453, Chihuahua, Mexico
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vargas-Piedra, Gonzalo,Valdez-Cepeda, Ricardo David,Lopez-Santos, Armando,et al. Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios[J],2020,11(5).
APA	Vargas-Piedra, Gonzalo,Valdez-Cepeda, Ricardo David,Lopez-Santos, Armando,Flores-Hernandez, Arnoldo,Hernandez-Quiroz, Nathalie S.,&Martinez-Salvador, Martin.(2020).Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios.FORESTS,11(5).
MLA	Vargas-Piedra, Gonzalo,et al."Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Xerophytic Shrub Candelilla (Euphorbia antisyphilitica) under Two Climate Change Scenarios".FORESTS 11.5(2020).