Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1111/ejss.12998 |
Machine learning in space and time for modelling soil organic carbon change | |
Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.1,2; Angelini, Marcos E.3; Poggio, Laura1; Bai, Zhanguo1; Batjes, Niels H.1; van den Bosch, Rik1; Bossio, Deborah4; Estella, Sergio5; Lehmann, Johannes6; Olmedo, Guillermo F.3; Sanderman, Jonathan7 | |
通讯作者 | Heuvelink, Gerard B. M. |
来源期刊 | EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE
![]() |
ISSN | 1351-0754 |
EISSN | 1365-2389 |
出版年 | 2020 |
英文摘要 | Spatially resolved estimates of change in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are necessary for supporting national and international policies aimed at achieving land degradation neutrality and climate change mitigation. In this work we report on the development, implementation and application of a data-driven, statistical method for mapping SOC stocks in space and time, using Argentina as a pilot. We used quantile regression forest machine learning to predict annual SOC stock at 0-30 cm depth at 250 m resolution for Argentina between 1982 and 2017. The model was calibrated using over 5,000 SOC stock values from the 36-year time period and 35 environmental covariates. We preprocessed normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dynamic covariates using a temporal low-pass filter to allow the SOC stock for a given year to depend on the NDVI of the current as well as preceding years. Predictions had modest temporal variation, with an average decrease for the entire country from 2.55 to 2.48 kg C m(-2)over the 36-year period (equivalent to a decline of 211 Gg C, 3.0% of the total 0-30 cm SOC stock in Argentina). The Pampa region had a larger estimated SOC stock decrease from 4.62 to 4.34 kg C m(-2)(5.9%) during the same period. For the 2001-2015 period, predicted temporal variation was seven-fold larger than that obtained using the Tier 1 approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification. Prediction uncertainties turned out to be substantial, mainly due to the limited number and poor spatial and temporal distribution of the calibration data, and the limited explanatory power of the covariates. Cross-validation confirmed that SOC stock prediction accuracy was limited, with a mean error of 0.03 kg C m(-2)and a root mean squared error of 2.04 kg C m(-2). In spite of the large uncertainties, this work showed that machine learning methods can be used for space-time SOC mapping and may yield valuable information to land managers and policymakers, provided that SOC observation density in space and time is sufficiently large. |
英文关键词 | Argentina carbon stock climate change land degradation quantile regression forest space-time mapping |
类型 | Article ; Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands ; Argentina ; USA ; Spain |
开放获取类型 | Other Gold, Green Published |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000544038600001 |
WOS关键词 | FUTURE CLIMATE ; STOCKS ; CLASSIFICATION ; PROJECTIONS ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Soil Science |
WOS研究方向 | Agriculture |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319519 |
作者单位 | 1.ISRIC World Soil Informat, POB 353, NL-6700 AJ Wageningen, Netherlands; 2.Wageningen Univ, Soil Geog & Landscape Grp, Wageningen, Netherlands; 3.Inst Nacl Tecnol Agr, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina; 4.Nature Conservancy, 1815 N Lynn St, Arlington, VA USA; 5.Vizzuality, Madrid, Spain; 6.Cornell Univ, Soil & Crop Sci, Ithaca, NY USA; 7.Woods Hole Res Ctr, Falmouth, MA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.,Angelini, Marcos E.,Poggio, Laura,et al. Machine learning in space and time for modelling soil organic carbon change[J],2020. |
APA | Heuvelink, Gerard B. M..,Angelini, Marcos E..,Poggio, Laura.,Bai, Zhanguo.,Batjes, Niels H..,...&Sanderman, Jonathan.(2020).Machine learning in space and time for modelling soil organic carbon change.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE. |
MLA | Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.,et al."Machine learning in space and time for modelling soil organic carbon change".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE (2020). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。