干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.1029/2019EF001337
	Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Scenarios
	Miao, Lijuan 1,2; Li, Suyuan 3; Zhang, Feng 4,5; Chen, Tiexi 1; Shan, Yunpeng 6; Zhang, Yushan 3
通讯作者	Zhang, Feng
来源期刊	EARTHS FUTURE
EISSN	2328-4277
出版年	2020
卷号	8 期号:6
英文摘要	Drought has become a major threat to local sustainable development in dryland Asia, one of the largest grassland ecosystems in the world. However, empirical- and science-based evidence regarding the extent of drought changes and the future trends of these changes in dryland Asia is variable and incomplete. Here, we first investigate the historical variations in drought conditions in dryland Asia, as measured by the drought intensity and arid area, using three widely used drought indices (the Palmer Drought Severity Index, the Standardized Precipitation Index, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index). Then, we use Bayesian model averaging to reproduce the future drought conditions under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP4.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models. The Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standardized Precipitation Index, and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index illustrate that dryland Asia has experienced an overall drying trend and an expansion of arid areas over the past 100 years (1901-2016). Both temperature and precipitation are projected to increase under both the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios compared with the values from the reference period (1986-2005). The projected drought conditions in the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warming scenarios will worsen, especially across Kazakhstan and Northwest China. We found that the drought conditions under the 2.0 degrees C warming conditions will not be as severe as those under the 1.5 degrees C warming conditions due to the mitigating effect of the projected precipitation increase under RCP4.5. These results call for short-term and long-term mitigation and adaptation measurements for drought events in dryland Asia. Plain Language Summary To avoid the negative impacts of climate warming, the Paris Agreement aims to pursue efforts to maintain the global warming increase at well below 1.5 and even 2.0 degrees C until the end of the century. Questions have been raised regarding the climate extremes in dryland Asia. Will drought issues become more severe under the context of global warming? Are the existing drought indices able to quantify and characterize the drought intensity and arid area in this region? Answers to these questions are crucial for the livelihood of millions of individuals, as these people rely on grassland biomass to feed both animals and farmers; however, the answers remain unclear. Here, we found that the projected drought severity and arid area will persistently increase under both the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C global warming scenarios. We also found that the drought conditions under the 2.0 degrees C warming scenario will be mitigated relative to those under the 1.5 degrees C warming scenario due to the beneficial effect of adequate precipitation under representative concentration pathway 4.5. Kazakhstan and Northwest China might be severely affected by drought. Therefore, understanding future changes in drought conditions in dryland Asia is critical for developing adaptation measures to cope with the challenges of rapid climate change.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; Germany ; USA
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000545702400003
WOS关键词	CLIMATE IMPACT ; CHINA ; MODEL ; 1.5-DEGREES-C ; 2-DEGREES-C ; SEVERITY ; DURATION ; PLATEAU ; RISK
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	南京信息工程大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319485
作者单位	1.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing, Peoples R China; 2.Leibniz Inst Agr Dev Transit Econ IAMO, Halle, Saale, Germany; 3.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Nanjing, Peoples R China; 4.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 5.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China; 6.Univ Wyoming, Dept Atmospher Sci, Laramie, WY 82071 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Miao, Lijuan,Li, Suyuan,Zhang, Feng,et al. Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Scenarios[J]. 南京信息工程大学,2020,8(6).
APA	Miao, Lijuan,Li, Suyuan,Zhang, Feng,Chen, Tiexi,Shan, Yunpeng,&Zhang, Yushan.(2020).Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Scenarios.EARTHS FUTURE,8(6).
MLA	Miao, Lijuan,et al."Future Drought in the Dry Lands of Asia Under the 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C Warming Scenarios".EARTHS FUTURE 8.6(2020).