干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios

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DOI	10.1590/0102-311X00115320
	The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios
	Micaela de Souza Noronha, Kenya Valeria 1; Guedes, Gilvan Ramalho 1; Turra, Cassio Maldonado 1; Andrade, Monica Viegas 1; Botega, Laura 1; Nogueira, Daniel 1; Calazans, Julia Almeida 1; Carvalho, Lucas 1; Servo, Luciana 2; Ferreira, Monique Felix 1,3
通讯作者	Micaela de Souza Noronha, Kenya Valeria
来源期刊	CADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA
ISSN	0102-311X
EISSN	1678-4464
出版年	2020
卷号	36 期号:6
英文摘要	This study aims to analyze the pressure on the Brazilian health system from the additional demand created by COVID-19. The authors performed a series of simulations to estimate the demand for hospital beds (health micro-regions) as well as to ICU beds, and mechanical ventilators (health macro-regions) under different scenarios of intensity (infection rates equivalent to 0.01, 0.1, and 1 case por 100 inhabitants) and time horizons (1, 3, and 6 months). The results reveal a critical situation in the system for meeting this potential demand, with numerous health micro-regions and macro-regions operating beyond their capacity, compromising the care for patients, especially those with more severe symptoms. The study presents three relevant messages. First, it is necessary to slow the spread of COVID-19 in the Brazilian population, allowing more time for the reorganization of the supply and relieve the pressure on the health system. Second, the expansion of the number of available beds will be the key. Even if the private sector helps offset the deficit, the combined supply from the two sectors (public and private) would be insufficient in various macro-regions. The construction of field hospitals is important, both in places with a history of hospital deserts and in those already pressured by demand. The third message involves the regionalized organization of health services, whose design may be adequate in situations of routine demand, but which suffer additional challenges during pandemics, especially if patients have to travel long distances to receive care.
英文关键词	COVID-19 Pandemics Health Services Accessibility Unified Health System Supplemental Health
类型	Article
语种	葡萄牙语
国家	Brazil
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000543730900001
WOS类目	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS研究方向	Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319453
作者单位	1.Univ Fed Minas Gerais, Fac Ciencias Econ, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil; 2.Inst Pesquisa Econ Aplicada, Diretoria Estudos & Polit Sociais, Brasilia, DF, Brazil; 3.Secretaria Estado Saude Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Micaela de Souza Noronha, Kenya Valeria,Guedes, Gilvan Ramalho,Turra, Cassio Maldonado,et al. The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios[J],2020,36(6).
APA	Micaela de Souza Noronha, Kenya Valeria.,Guedes, Gilvan Ramalho.,Turra, Cassio Maldonado.,Andrade, Monica Viegas.,Botega, Laura.,...&Ferreira, Monique Felix.(2020).The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios.CADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA,36(6).
MLA	Micaela de Souza Noronha, Kenya Valeria,et al."The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: analysis of supply and demand of hospital and ICU beds and mechanical ventilators under different scenarios".CADERNOS DE SAUDE PUBLICA 36.6(2020).