干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatially explicit predictions of changes in the extent of mangroves of Iran at the end of the 21st century

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecss.2020.106644
	Spatially explicit predictions of changes in the extent of mangroves of Iran at the end of the 21st century
	Mafi-Gholami, Davood 1; Zenner, Eric K.2; Jaafari, Abolfazl 3; Dieu Tien Bui 4
通讯作者	Jaafari, Abolfazl ; Dieu Tien Bui
来源期刊	ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE
ISSN	0272-7714
EISSN	1096-0015
出版年	2020
卷号	237
英文摘要	This is the first study that uses a spatially explicit approach to predict the remaining area of mangroves accounting for predicted changes in rainfall and sea levels caused by climate change. Rainfall/drought intensity and sea level rise were predicted for the end of the 21st century using the RCP8.5 climate change scenario for three study sites that were located on the semi-desert coasts of the Persian Gulf (PG) and the Gulf of Oman (GO) of Iran. Satellite images revealed that the spatial dynamics of mangroves diverged over the last 32 years. During the most recent wet period (1986-1997), mangroves expanded and increased their net areas despite rising sea levels of about 3.3 mm yr(-1). During the most recent dry period (1998-2017), mangroves gradually retreated from landward positions and lost area following seaward inundation by rising sea waters; more abundant short-term rainfall did not lead to expanding mangrove areas. The Cellular Automaton (CA)-Markov algorithm and statistical modeling were used to model mangrove areas during the wet and dry periods, accounting indirectly (CA-Markov) or directly (statistical) for rising sea levels and precipitation/droughts. Mangrove areas in the year 2100 predicted with the CA-Markov algorithm were spatially-explicitly adjusted for expected sea levels in a GIS. The statistical model developed for the most recent dry period, most similar to the anticipated future climate, was parameterized with the expected rainfall data and sea levels in 2100. Both CA-Markov and statistical modeling predicted that regional mangrove area will decline between 50 and 60%, with the greatest decline on the coast of the GO where sea level rise is exacerbated by greater subsidence rates than sedimentation rates. Compared to 2017, increased rainfall and decreasing drought severity forecast in 2100 in an overall dry period are not sufficient to reverse the reductions in mangrove areas following rising sea levels of similar to 9.9 mm yr(-1) expected between 2017 and 2100.
英文关键词	Persian gulf Drought Sea level rise RCP8.5 scenario CA-Markov algorithm Statistical modeling
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran ; USA ; Vietnam
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000527916600022
WOS关键词	SEA-LEVEL RISE ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; FORESTS ; SUNDARBANS ; RESPONSES ; SEDIMENTATION ; BANGLADESH ; DYNAMICS ; DROUGHT ; IMPACT
WOS类目	Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
WOS研究方向	Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319200
作者单位	1.Shahrekord Univ, Fac Nat Resources & Earth Sci, Dept Forest Sci, Shahrekord, Iran; 2.Penn State Univ, Dept Ecosyst Sci & Management, Forest Resources Bldg, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 3.AREEO, Res Inst Forests & Rangelands, Tehran, Iran; 4.Duy Tan Univ, Inst Res & Dev, Da Nang 550000, Vietnam
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mafi-Gholami, Davood,Zenner, Eric K.,Jaafari, Abolfazl,et al. Spatially explicit predictions of changes in the extent of mangroves of Iran at the end of the 21st century[J],2020,237.
APA	Mafi-Gholami, Davood,Zenner, Eric K.,Jaafari, Abolfazl,&Dieu Tien Bui.(2020).Spatially explicit predictions of changes in the extent of mangroves of Iran at the end of the 21st century.ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE,237.
MLA	Mafi-Gholami, Davood,et al."Spatially explicit predictions of changes in the extent of mangroves of Iran at the end of the 21st century".ESTUARINE COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE 237(2020).