干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Regional landscape futures to moderate projected climate change: a case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of North China

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10113-020-01661-2
	Regional landscape futures to moderate projected climate change: a case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of North China
	Cao, Qian 1,2; Wu, Jianguo 2,3,4; Yu, Deyong 2; Wan, Renqing 1; Qiao, Jianmin 5
通讯作者	Yu, Deyong ; Wan, Renqing
来源期刊	REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
ISSN	1436-3798
EISSN	1436-378X
出版年	2020
卷号	20 期号:2
英文摘要	Changes in land systems have been shown to affect regional climate, but minimal attention has been paid to landscape patterns as adaptation strategies to climate change. In this study, we introduce alternative futures analysis and coupled land-atmosphere modeling to investigate the effect of landscape patterns on moderating projected climate change in northern China. Three future landscape scenarios are developed, and their impacts on regional climate in the context of climate change are examined. A reference scenario, Business-as-Usual, follows recent landscape trajectory; the Conservation scenario puts greater emphasis on ecosystem protection and restoration to ultimately achieve sustained socioeconomic development; the Degradation scenario ignores current policy to allow broad cropland expansion. The landscape impacts on regional climate under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are substantial and dependent on background climate. The Conservation scenario shows considerable decreases in near-surface temperature and extensive increases in rainfall during summer as compared with Business-as-Usual under RCP8.5 (i.e., a high emissions scenario), thus representing a preferred landscape pattern for climate moderation. However, trade-offs between temperature reduction and rainfall enhancement exist under RCP4.5 (i.e., a low-to-moderate emissions scenario), which necessitates careful evaluation. Finally, the Degradation scenario leads to the highest temperature and lowest rainfall among the three alternative futures under both climate conditions. Our study underlines the importance of landscape design/planning as an effective way to moderate climate change, and provides useful scientific information for making land use policies.
英文关键词	Alternative futures analysis Climate change scenarios Landscape impacts on climate Regional climate modeling Semi-arid region
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; USA
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000536363600001
WOS关键词	LAND-COVER CHANGE ; ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; SYSTEM SCIENCE ; SURFACE MODEL ; IMPACTS ; ADAPTATION ; IMPLEMENTATION ; MANAGEMENT ; SCENARIOS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	北京师范大学 ; Arizona State University
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319189
作者单位	1.Shandong Univ, Sch Life Sci, Inst Ecol & Biodivets, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China; 2.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Ctr Human Environm Syst Sustainabil CHESS, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 3.Arizona State Univ, Sch Life Sci, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA; 4.Arizona State Univ, Sch Sustainabil, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA; 5.Shandong Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Environm, Jinan 250014, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao, Qian,Wu, Jianguo,Yu, Deyong,et al. Regional landscape futures to moderate projected climate change: a case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of North China[J]. 北京师范大学, Arizona State University,2020,20(2).
APA	Cao, Qian,Wu, Jianguo,Yu, Deyong,Wan, Renqing,&Qiao, Jianmin.(2020).Regional landscape futures to moderate projected climate change: a case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of North China.REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE,20(2).
MLA	Cao, Qian,et al."Regional landscape futures to moderate projected climate change: a case study in the agro-pastoral transitional zone of North China".REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE 20.2(2020).