干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections

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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d03
	Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections
	Jiang Jie 1,2; Zhou Tianjun 1,2,3; Chen Xiaolong 1; Zhang Lixia 1
通讯作者	Zhou Tianjun
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2020
卷号	15 期号:5
英文摘要	A stronger than global mean warming trend is projected over Central Asia in the coming century. Based on the historical simulations and projections under four combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) provided by 15 models from the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show a comprehensive picture of the future changes in precipitation over Central Asia under rapid warming and investigate possible mechanisms. At the end of the twenty-first century, robust increase of annual mean precipitation under all the scenarios is found (4.23 [2.60 to 7.36] %, 10.52 [5.05 to 13.36] %, 14.51 [8.11 to 16.91] %, 14.41 [9.58 to 21.26] % relative to the present-day for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). The response of precipitation to increasing global mean temperature shows similar spatial patterns for the four scenarios with stronger changes over Tianshan mountain and the northern part of Central Asia. Further analysis reveals a wetting trend in spring and a drying trend in summer in both the north of Central Asia (NCA) and south of Central Asia (SCA). The wetting trend in spring is balanced by the increase of evaporation, while the drying trend in summer is mainly contributed by the decrease of vertical moisture advection. The thermodynamic effects associated with humidity changes contribute to the drying trends in both the two domains, while the dynamic effects favor for the drying trend in NCA and offset the drying trend in SCA. The response of precipitation to increasing temperature results in enhanced seasonalities for SCA and NCA, and an advancing of the first peak from summer to spring in the NCA.
英文关键词	Central Asia precipitation projection moisture budget evaporation
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000532368100001
WOS关键词	ANNUAL CYCLE ; SUMMER PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE SENSITIVITY ; ARID REGION ; WATER-VAPOR ; VEGETATION ; IMPACTS ; DROUGHT ; RANGE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国科学院大气物理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/319022
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China; 3.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jiang Jie,Zhou Tianjun,Chen Xiaolong,et al. Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections[J]. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,2020,15(5).
APA	Jiang Jie,Zhou Tianjun,Chen Xiaolong,&Zhang Lixia.(2020).Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(5).
MLA	Jiang Jie,et al."Future changes in precipitation over Central Asia based on CMIP6 projections".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.5(2020).