干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Regional risk analysis and derivation of copula-based drought for severity-duration curve in arid and semi-arid regions

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-020-03217-0
	Regional risk analysis and derivation of copula-based drought for severity-duration curve in arid and semi-arid regions
	Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin 1,2; Zamani, Hossein 2,3; Shekari, Marzieh 2,3; Singh, Vijay P.4
通讯作者	Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin ; Zamani, Hossein
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2020
卷号	141 期号:3-4 页码:889-905
英文摘要	This study investigated droughts in arid and semi-arid regions in Iran using long historical data from 25 stations. These stations were clustered into three homogeneous regions using a fuzzy clustering method. The severity and duration were extracted using the Standardized Precipitation Index-12, and the dependence structure between drought severity and duration was evaluated using Pearson's, Spearman's ranked, and Kendal's tau correlation coefficients. The best marginal distributions of severity and duration were selected using graphical and theoretical goodness-of-fit criteria. Results showed that the generalized logistic (GLO) model satisfactorily fitted drought duration in regions I and III, while the Wakeby distribution fitted better in region II. For drought severity, the best fitted model was the GLO model in region I, the generalized extreme value (GEV) model in region III, and the Wakeby model in region II. Furthermore, the Gumbel copula in region I and the Gaussian copulas in regions II and III were able to model the dependence between drought variables well. Also, stochastic simulation of bivariate drought using selected copulas showed that the behavior of bivariate drought changed when the degree of correlation between variables was considered. The copula method was used to obtain bivariate and conditional return periods. The bivariate analysis of drought risk indicated that coastal and internal regions of Iran were more risky than semi-arid and arid regions. The results of this study would be useful for water resource management and risk analysis at the regional scale.
英文关键词	Risk analysis Copula-based index Fuzzy clustering Low rainfall regions
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran ; USA
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000533191600001
WOS关键词	OF-FIT TESTS ; FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; MODEL ; DEPENDENCE
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/318656
作者单位	1.Univ Hormozgan, Fac Agr & Nat Resources, Dept Nat Resources, Bandar Abbas, Iran; 2.Univ Homiozgan, Fac Agr & Nat Resources, Environm Data Anal EDA Res Ctr, Bandar Abbas, Iran; 3.Univ Hormozgan, Dept Math & Stat, Fac Sci, Bandar Abbas, Iran; 4.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Dept Biol & Agr Engn & Zachry, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin,Zamani, Hossein,Shekari, Marzieh,et al. Regional risk analysis and derivation of copula-based drought for severity-duration curve in arid and semi-arid regions[J],2020,141(3-4):889-905.
APA	Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin,Zamani, Hossein,Shekari, Marzieh,&Singh, Vijay P..(2020).Regional risk analysis and derivation of copula-based drought for severity-duration curve in arid and semi-arid regions.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,141(3-4),889-905.
MLA	Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin,et al."Regional risk analysis and derivation of copula-based drought for severity-duration curve in arid and semi-arid regions".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 141.3-4(2020):889-905.