干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting

Arid

DOI	10.3390/en13102503
	The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting
	Alessandrini, Stefano; McCandless, Tyler
通讯作者	Alessandrini, Stefano
来源期刊	ENERGIES
EISSN	1996-1073
出版年	2020
卷号	13 期号:10
英文摘要	One way to mitigate the variability of wind and solar power generation is to install the corresponding plants in nearby locations. For example, in Kuwait, the facility at Shagaya Renewable Energy Park is located in a desert area with both photovoltaic panels and wind turbines that allow the continuous generation of renewable energy throughout the day. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) has developed a system to generate probabilistic wind and solar predictions for the Shagaya facility. These predictions are based on the analog ensemble technique that post-processes the wind speed and solar irradiance predictions based on a combination of multiple models including the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) numerical model. The ensemble forecasts have 20 members and are generated independently at each wind and solar power production facility. Here we present a method based on the Schaake Shuffle (SS) technique to pair the ensemble members from the independent systems to obtain a unique ensemble prediction of the aggregated wind and solar generation. After reordering through the SS technique, the corresponding paired solar and wind power members can be summed to build a unique ensemble of combined generation that is statistically consistent, as verified by the presented metrics.
英文关键词	solar power forecasting wind power forecasting ensemble forecasting analog ensemble schaake shuffle machine learning
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000539257300096
WOS关键词	ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM ; ANALOG ENSEMBLE ; ENERGY ; ECMWF ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; SPEED
WOS类目	Energy & Fuels
WOS研究方向	Energy & Fuels
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/318612
作者单位	Natl Ctr Atmospher Res NCAR, Res Applicat Lab, Boulder, CO 80307 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Alessandrini, Stefano,McCandless, Tyler. The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting[J],2020,13(10).
APA	Alessandrini, Stefano,&McCandless, Tyler.(2020).The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting.ENERGIES,13(10).
MLA	Alessandrini, Stefano,et al."The Schaake Shuffle Technique to Combine Solar and Wind Power Probabilistic Forecasting".ENERGIES 13.10(2020).