干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran

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DOI	10.1007/s40333-020-0095-5
	Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran
	Dehghan, Sheida 1; Salehnia, Nasrin 2; Sayari, Nasrin 1; Bakhtiari, Bahram 1
通讯作者	Sayari, Nasrin
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF ARID LAND
ISSN	1674-6767
EISSN	2194-7783
出版年	2020
卷号	12 期号:2 页码:318-330
英文摘要	Drought is one of the most significant environmental disasters, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. Drought indices as a tool for management practices seeking to deal with the drought phenomenon are widely used around the world. One of these indicators is the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which is used in many parts of the world to assess the drought situation and continuation. In this study, the drought state of Fars Province in Iran was evaluated by using the PDSI over 1995-2014 according to meteorological data from six weather stations in the province. A statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to apply the output results of the general circulation model in Fars Province. To implement data processing and prediction of climate data, a statistical period 1995-2014 was considered as the monitoring period, and a statistical period 2019-2048 was for the prediction period. The results revealed that there is a good agreement between the simulated precipitation (R-2>0.63; R-2, determination coefficient; MAE<0.52; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE<0.56; RMSE, Root Mean Squared Error) and temperature (R-2>0.95, MAE<1.74, and RMSE<1.78) with the observed data from the stations. The results of the drought monitoring model presented that dry periods would increase over the next three decades as compared to the historical data. The studies showed the highest drought in the meteorological stations Abadeh and Lar during the prediction period under two future scenarios representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). According to the results of the validation periods and efficiency criteria, we suggest that the SDSM is a proper tool for predicting drought in arid and semi-arid regions.
英文关键词	PDSI SDSM RCP4 5 RCP8 5 climate change extreme drought
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran
开放获取类型	Bronze
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000531437700011
WOS关键词	SEVERITY INDEX ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; BASIN ; CHINA
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/318510
作者单位	1.Shahid Bahonar Univ Kerman, Dept Water Engn, Fac Agr, Kerman 7616914111, Iran; 2.Ferdowsi Univ Mashhad, Fac Agr, Mashhad 9177949207, Razavi Khorasan, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dehghan, Sheida,Salehnia, Nasrin,Sayari, Nasrin,et al. Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran[J],2020,12(2):318-330.
APA	Dehghan, Sheida,Salehnia, Nasrin,Sayari, Nasrin,&Bakhtiari, Bahram.(2020).Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran.JOURNAL OF ARID LAND,12(2),318-330.
MLA	Dehghan, Sheida,et al."Prediction of meteorological drought in arid and semi-arid regions using PDSI and SDSM: a case study in Fars Province, Iran".JOURNAL OF ARID LAND 12.2(2020):318-330.