干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 中国温带草原和荒漠区域春季物候的变化及其敏感性分析

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	中国温带草原和荒漠区域春季物候的变化及其敏感性分析
其他题名	Changes of Spring Phenology and Sensitivity Analysis in Temperate Grassland and Desert Zones of China
	李耀斌 1; 张远东 1; 顾峰雪 2; 刘世荣 1
来源期刊	林业科学研究
ISSN	1001-1498
出版年	2019
卷号	32 期号:4 页码:1-10
中文摘要	[目的]在全球气候变化背景下,分析中国温带草原和荒漠区域春季物候变化趋势,探索该区域春季物候与气候因子之间的关系。[方法]利用19822015年归一化植被指数(NDVI)数据集,提取中国温带草原和荒漠区域植被生长季开始日期(SOS),评估整个研究区及草甸、草原和荒漠SOS的线性趋势。利用偏相关和多元线性回归方法,分析SOS与季前(5月上一年11月)温度和季前降水的关系,并分析SOS对气候变化响应的空间模式。[结果]19822015年中国温带草原和荒漠区域SOS以0.14 d·a~(-1)的速率显著提前。空间上,6 8%的地区呈提前趋势,3 2%的地区呈延迟趋势。SOS与不同季前时期的平均温度和降水均呈负相关,且与季前平均温度的相关性更显著。SOS分别与季前40 d平均温度和季前200 d降水的相关性最大。1982 2015年,季前(40 d)平均温度上升1℃,SOS显著提前1.31 d;季前(200 d)降水增加10 mm,SOS提前0.44 d。空间上,长期平均季前(200 d)降水增加10 mm,SOS温度敏感性增加0.093 d·℃~(-1),SOS降水敏感性降低0.019 d·10 mm~(-1)。[结论]过去34年中国温带草原和荒漠区域SOS表现提前趋势。季前平均温度是控制SOS变化的主要因子。季前平均温度升高和季前降水增加会导致SOS提前。季前降水决定SOS温度敏感性和SOS降水敏感性的空间格局。季前降水越多的地区,SOS对季前平均温度越敏感;季前降水越少的地区,SOS对季前降水越敏感。
英文摘要	[Objective] To analyze the trends of spring phenology in temperate grassland and desert zones of China under the context of global climate change,and to explore the relationship between spring phenology and climate factors.[Method] Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset from 1982 to 2015,the start date of the vegetation growing season (SOS) in temperate grassland and desert zones of China was extracted,and the linear trends of SOS for the entire study area,meadow,steppe and desert were evaluated.The relationship between SOS and preseason (May through October of last year) temperature and preseason precipitation was analyzed with partial correlation and multiple linear regressions,along with the spatial pattern of SOS response to climate change.[Result]Over the temperate grassland and desert zones of China,the SOS was significantly advanced by 0.14 d·a~(-1) from 1982 to 2015.Spatially,68% of natural vegetation pixels showed an advancing trend in SOS,whereas 32% of pixels displayed a delay trend.It showed the SOS was negatively correlated with preseason mean temperature and preseason precipitation for different preseason periods,and was more significantly correlated with preseason mean temperature.SOS was most correlated with mean temperature during 40 days of preseason period and precipitation during 200 days of preseason period,respectively.From 1982 to 2015,a warming of 1℃ in preseason (40 days) mean temperature would significantly advance SOS by 1.31 days over the temperate grassland and desert zones of China,whereas an increase of 10 mm in preseason precipitation would advance SOS by 0.44 days.Spatially,an increase of 10 mm in the long-term average preseason(200 days) precipitation would increase temperature sensitivity of SOS by 0.093 d·℃~(-1),and would decrease the precipitation sensitivity of SOS by 0.019 d·(10 mm)-1.[Conclusion]SOS showed an advancing trend in temperate grassland and desert zones of China in the past 34 years.Preseason mean temperature is the dominant factor driving variations of SOS.Increase in preseason mean temperature and preseason precipitation will lead to SOS advance.Preseason precipitation determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of SOS and precipitation sensitivity of SOS.SOS is more sensitive to preseason mean temperature in the areas with more preseason precipitation;and is more sensitive to preseason precipitation in the areas with less preseason precipitation.
中文关键词	植被生长季开始日期(SOS) ; 季前平均温度 ; 季前降水 ; 敏感性 ; 中国温带草原和荒漠区域
英文关键词	start date of the vegetation growing season(SOS) preseason mean temperature preseason precipitation sensitivity temperate grassland and desert zones of China
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	REMOTE SENSING
WOS研究方向	Remote Sensing
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6562468
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/315764
作者单位	1.中国林业科学研究院森林生态环境与保护研究所, 国家林业和草原局森林生态环境重点实验室, 北京 100091, 中国; 2.中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所, 农业部旱作节水农业重点实验室, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	李耀斌,张远东,顾峰雪,等. 中国温带草原和荒漠区域春季物候的变化及其敏感性分析[J],2019,32(4):1-10.
APA	李耀斌,张远东,顾峰雪,&刘世荣.(2019).中国温带草原和荒漠区域春季物候的变化及其敏感性分析.林业科学研究,32(4),1-10.
MLA	李耀斌,et al."中国温带草原和荒漠区域春季物候的变化及其敏感性分析".林业科学研究 32.4(2019):1-10.