干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Assessment of climate change over Iran: CMIP5 results and their presentation in terms of Koppen-Geiger climate zones

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00704-020-03190-8
	Assessment of climate change over Iran: CMIP5 results and their presentation in terms of Koppen-Geiger climate zones
	Rahimi, Jaber 1,2; Laux, Patrick 2; Khalili, Ali 1
通讯作者	Rahimi, Jaber
来源期刊	THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0177-798X
EISSN	1434-4483
出版年	2020
卷号	141 期号:1-2 页码:183-199
英文摘要	Climate change is arguably one of the most important challenges affecting different aspects of human life and the environment. The current research is an effort to assess the possible impact of climate change on precipitation, temperature, and consequently climate zones over Iran, based on the Koppen-Geiger climate classification scheme. To this end, monthly mean values of precipitation totals and air temperature from 149 synoptic stations during 1971-2015 as well as output from 17 Earth System Models of the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) under two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, over the twenty-first century were taken into consideration. The results obtained by the ensemble mean of the 17 CMIP5 models under RCP8.5 scenario indicated that the annual mean temperature is expected to increase significantly by 1.9 and 3.3 degrees C for the periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, respectively. For precipitation, results showed that the annual mean precipitation over the country is expected to decrease under both RCP scenarios relative to the baseline period (1971-2015) between - 5.4% by 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 and - 9.5% by 2071-2100 under RCP8.5. Monthly precipitation regimes are expected to change across the country, especially in the Caspian Sea coastal regions and in Alborz mountain ranges. The Koppen-Geiger climate classification map of Iran is derived for the period 1971-2015 and compared to existing global Koppen-Geiger climate classification maps. Also, computing climate types of Koppen-Geiger climate classification based on averages from three climatic periods (1971-2015, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) showed that the area of arid-desert and arid-steppe climate classes (BW and BS) and the area of moderate and snow climate classes (Ds and Cs) are expected to increase and decrease, respectively. The results of this study could impact on strategic planning in agriculture and water resources, and thus consequently affecting the economy of Iran.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran ; Germany
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000526203800001
WOS关键词	WORLD MAP ; SHIFTS ; MULTIMODEL ; CLASSIFICATION ; ENSEMBLE ; EUROPE ; MODELS
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/315669
作者单位	1.Univ Tehran, Coll Agr & Nat Resources, Fac Agr Engn & Technol, Meteorol Div,Dept Irrigat & Reclamat Engn, Karaj, Iran; 2.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Atmospher Environm Res IMK IFU, Garmisch Partenkirchen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rahimi, Jaber,Laux, Patrick,Khalili, Ali. Assessment of climate change over Iran: CMIP5 results and their presentation in terms of Koppen-Geiger climate zones[J],2020,141(1-2):183-199.
APA	Rahimi, Jaber,Laux, Patrick,&Khalili, Ali.(2020).Assessment of climate change over Iran: CMIP5 results and their presentation in terms of Koppen-Geiger climate zones.THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY,141(1-2),183-199.
MLA	Rahimi, Jaber,et al."Assessment of climate change over Iran: CMIP5 results and their presentation in terms of Koppen-Geiger climate zones".THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY 141.1-2(2020):183-199.