干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model

Arid

DOI	10.5194/hess-24-1227-2020
	Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model
	Armon, Moshe 1; Marra, Francesco 1,2; Enzel, Yehouda 1; Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita 1,3; Morin, Efrat 1
通讯作者	Armon, Moshe
来源期刊	HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
ISSN	1027-5606
EISSN	1607-7938
出版年	2020
卷号	24 期号:3 页码:1227-1249
英文摘要	Heavy precipitation events (HPEs) can lead to natural hazards (e.g. floods and debris flows) and contribute to water resources. Spatiotemporal rainfall patterns govern the hydrological, geomorphological, and societal effects of HPEs. Thus, a correct characterisation and prediction of rainfall patterns is crucial for coping with these events. Information from rain gauges is generally limited due to the sparseness of the networks, especially in the presence of sharp climatic gradients. Forecasting HPEs depends on the ability of weather models to generate credible rainfall patterns. This paper characterises rainfall patterns during HPEs based on high-resolution weather radar data and evaluates the performance of a high-resolution, convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating these patterns. We identified 41 HPEs in the eastern Mediterranean from a 24-year radar record using local thresholds based on quantiles for different durations, classified these events into two synoptic systems, and ran model simulations for them. For most durations, HPEs near the coastline were characterised by the highest rain intensities; however, for short durations, the highest rain intensities were found for the inland desert. During the rainy season, the rain field's centre of mass progresses from the sea inland. Rainfall during HPEs is highly localised in both space (less than a 10 km decorrelation distance) and time (less than 5 min). WRF model simulations were accurate in generating the structure and location of the rain fields in 39 out of 41 HPEs. However, they showed a positive bias relative to the radar estimates and exhibited errors in the spatial location of the heaviest precipitation. Our results indicate that convection-permitting model outputs can provide reliable climatological analyses of heavy precipitation patterns; conversely, flood forecasting requires the use of ensemble simulations to overcome the spatial location errors.
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA ; Italy ; Israel
开放获取类型	Green Submitted, gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000520413700001
WOS关键词	DURATION-FREQUENCY CURVES ; FLASH-FLOOD REGIMES ; EXTREME PRECIPITATION ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; WEATHER RADAR ; RAINFALL EVENTS ; MIDDLE-EAST ; PART II ; RED-SEA ; CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/314697
作者单位	1.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Inst Earth Sci, Edmond J Safra Campus, Edmond, OK USA; 2.CNR, Natl Res Council Italy, Inst Atmospher Sci & Climate, I-40129 Bologna, Italy; 3.IIBR, Environm Sci Div, Dept Appl Math, IL-7410001 Ness Ziona, Israel
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Armon, Moshe,Marra, Francesco,Enzel, Yehouda,et al. Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model[J],2020,24(3):1227-1249.
APA	Armon, Moshe,Marra, Francesco,Enzel, Yehouda,Rostkier-Edelstein, Dorita,&Morin, Efrat.(2020).Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model.HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES,24(3),1227-1249.
MLA	Armon, Moshe,et al."Radar-based characterisation of heavy precipitation in the eastern Mediterranean and its representation in a convection-permitting model".HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES 24.3(2020):1227-1249.