干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2 degrees C warmer world

Arid

DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab7555
	A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2 degrees C warmer world
	Nanditha, J. S.1; van der Wief, Karin 2; Bhatia, Udit 1; Stone, Daithi 3; Selton, Frank 2; Mishra, Vimal 1
通讯作者	Mishra, Vimal
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2020
卷号	15 期号:4
英文摘要	Heatwaves and extreme temperatures during summer (April-May) in India have profound implications on public health, mortality, water availability, and productivity of labourers. However, how the frequency of the hottest summers in observed record (1951-2015) will change under the warming climate in India is not well explored. Using observations from the India Meteorological Department, we show that mean maximum summer temperature has increased significantly in three (arid, monsoon, and savannah) out of five major climatic regions of India during 1951-2015. We identify the hottest summer in the observed record in the five climatic regions in India. The arid, cold, and temperate regions experienced the hottest summer in 2010 while monsoon and Savannah regions witnessed the hottest summer in 1979 and 1973, respectively. Based on simulations from the Climate of 20th Century Plus (C20C+) Detection and Attribution project, we show that the regional hottest summer of 2010 can be attributed to the anthropogenic warming. We then use simulations of a large (2000 year) ensemble of the EC-Earth model to estimate the exceedance probability of the observed hottest summer in the present climate, 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C warming worlds in India. The exceedance probability of the observed hottest summers shows a rise of more than seven and twenty-fold in the 2 degrees C and 3 degrees C warming world, respectively, compared to the present climate. The projected increases in the frequency of the hot summers and associated heatwave days will pose great societal challenges in the future in India.
英文关键词	heatwaves hot summer detection and attribution India
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	India ; Netherlands ; New Zealand
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000528684000001
WOS关键词	SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; EXTREME WEATHER ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HEAT WAVES ; TRENDS ; ATTRIBUTION ; SENSITIVITY ; EXPLORATION ; IRRIGATION ; EMISSIONS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/314454
作者单位	1.Indian Inst Technol IIT Gandhinagar, Civil Engn, Gandhinagar, India; 2.Royal Netherlands Meteorol Inst KNMI, De Bilt, Netherlands; 3.NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nanditha, J. S.,van der Wief, Karin,Bhatia, Udit,et al. A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2 degrees C warmer world[J],2020,15(4).
APA	Nanditha, J. S.,van der Wief, Karin,Bhatia, Udit,Stone, Daithi,Selton, Frank,&Mishra, Vimal.(2020).A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2 degrees C warmer world.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,15(4).
MLA	Nanditha, J. S.,et al."A seven-fold rise in the probability of exceeding the observed hottest summer in India in a 2 degrees C warmer world".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 15.4(2020).