Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| DOI | 10.1016/j.ecoleng.2020.105765 |
| Large-scale flood hazard assessment under climate change: A case study | |
| Toosi, Amirhossein Shadmehri1; Doulabian, Shahab2; Tousi, Erfan Ghasemi3; Calbimonte, Giancarlo Humberto3; Alaghmand, Sina4 | |
| 通讯作者 | Alaghmand, Sina |
| 来源期刊 | ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING
 |
| ISSN | 0925-8574 |
| EISSN | 1872-6992 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 卷号 | 147 |
| 英文摘要 | Climate change represents a set of mechanisms that result in significant impacts toward hydrologic processes both at global and regional scales and usually they are developing countries where face the most challenging consequences. For instance, arid and semi-arid environments experience a high level of uncertainty in rainfall, which results in unforeseen periods of droughts, or high-intensity rainfall, which generates severe floods, increasing the water insecurity and flood damage in these areas. Climate pattern variations are specifically critical to forecast conditions for flood hazard management. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are useful tools to forecast future climate change scenarios. However, the application of GCM in flood hazard management is particularly challenging, given that they operate under high uncertainty and coarse scale. In this context, a five-class Flood Hazard Index (FHI) map was generated by using a multi criteria index approach, based on defining the greater influence of seven factors related to flood generation: runoff coefficient, elevation, slope, distance from the drainage network, rainfall intensity, soil erosion and land use. In this paper, we utilized monthly data for the baseline period (1980-2004), and then the output of 8 GCMs for surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were downscaled using a statistical model and evaluated in the baseline period. Consequently, the most suitable models were selected according to their average monthly performance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was then used to develop a runoff coefficient map, using the downscaled outputs of the selected GCMs. Accordingly, a flood hazard model was developed at a large basin in the northeast of Iran for baseline and future periods (2040-2064) under RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Having validated the generated flood map for the baseline period, the future maps were generated and compared. Results show the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation; however, it was found that rainfall intensities are to be increased. This supports the final flood hazard map for the future climate conditions scenario with an increased relative hazard level. This was particularly observed in flat, and moderate sloped areas, compared to the model results with historic climate data. |
| 英文关键词 | River basin management SWAT Flood hazard assessment Climate change GCMs |
| 类型 | Article |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 国家 | Iran ; USA ; Australia |
| 开放获取类型 | Bronze |
| 收录类别 | SCI-E |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000519577900010 |
| WOS关键词 | GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS ; LAND-USE CHANGES ; CHANGE IMPACT ; INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ; DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES ; SALINE FLOODPLAIN ; MODEL SIMULATIONS ; BIAS CORRECTION ; NATIONAL SCALE ; PRECIPITATION |
| WOS类目 | Ecology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Engineering |
| 来源机构 | University of Arizona |
| 资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/314337 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Ferdowsi Univ Mashhad, Dept Civil Engn, Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi, Iran; 2.Shahrood Univ Technol, Dept Civil Engn, Shahrood, Semnan, Iran; 3.Univ Arizona, Dept Civil & Architectural Engn & Mech, Tucson, AZ USA; 4.Monash Univ, Dept Civil Engn, 23 Coll Walk, Clayton, Vic 3800, Australia |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Toosi, Amirhossein Shadmehri,Doulabian, Shahab,Tousi, Erfan Ghasemi,et al. Large-scale flood hazard assessment under climate change: A case study[J]. University of Arizona,2020,147. |
| APA | Toosi, Amirhossein Shadmehri,Doulabian, Shahab,Tousi, Erfan Ghasemi,Calbimonte, Giancarlo Humberto,&Alaghmand, Sina.(2020).Large-scale flood hazard assessment under climate change: A case study.ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING,147. |
| MLA | Toosi, Amirhossein Shadmehri,et al."Large-scale flood hazard assessment under climate change: A case study".ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING 147(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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