干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Dynamical downscaling simulation and projection for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05170-0
	Dynamical downscaling simulation and projection for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over central Asia
	Zhu, Xian 1,2; Wei, Zhigang 3; Dong, Wenjie 1,2; Ji, Zhenming 1,2; Wen, Xiaohang 4; Zheng, Zhiyuan 1,2; Yan, Dongdong 3; Chen, Deliang 5
通讯作者	Dong, Wenjie ; Ji, Zhenming
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
出版年	2020
卷号	54 期号:7-8 页码:3279-3306
英文摘要	As a typical arid and semi-arid area, central Asia (CA) has scarce water resources and fragile ecosystems that are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate change. In this study, dynamic downscaling was conducted to produce a regional dataset that incorporated the time period 1986-2100 for the CA. The results show that dynamic downscaling significantly improves the simulation for the mean and extreme climate over the CA, compared to the driving CCSM4 model. We show that significant warming will occur over CA with 2.0 degrees C and 5.0 degrees C increasing under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively by the end of twenty-first century. The daily maximum temperature, the daily minimum temperature and the annual total number of days with a minimum temperature greater than 25 degrees C will also increase significantly. The annual total number of days with a minimum temperature less than 0 degrees C will decrease significantly. Long-term trends in the projected winter precipitation under different emission scenarios exhibit robust and increasing changes during the twenty-first century, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario with an increasing about 0.1 mm/day. Significant differences are shown in the projection of precipitation-related indices over CA under different emission scenarios, and the impact of emissions is apparent for the number of days with >= 10 mm of precipitation, the density of precipitation on days with >= 1 mm of precipitation, and particularly for the maximum consecutive number of dry days that will increase significantly under the RCP8.5 scenario. Therefore, reduced greenhouse gases emissions have implications for mitigating extreme drought events over the CA in the future.
英文关键词	Central Asia Dynamic downscaling Extreme Projection
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China ; Sweden
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000516468800001
WOS关键词	TIBETAN PLATEAU ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; CHINA ; CMIP5 ; WRF ; PARAMETERIZATION ; SENSITIVITY ; INDEXES ; DATASET ; CONTEXT
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	北京师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/314265
作者单位	1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China; 2.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China; 3.Beijing Normal Univ, Fac Geog Sci, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China; 4.Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Plateau Atmosphere & Environm Key Lab Sichuan Pro, Chengdu 610225, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Reg Climate Grp, S-46040530 Gothenburg, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Xian,Wei, Zhigang,Dong, Wenjie,et al. Dynamical downscaling simulation and projection for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over central Asia[J]. 北京师范大学,2020,54(7-8):3279-3306.
APA	Zhu, Xian.,Wei, Zhigang.,Dong, Wenjie.,Ji, Zhenming.,Wen, Xiaohang.,...&Chen, Deliang.(2020).Dynamical downscaling simulation and projection for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over central Asia.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,54(7-8),3279-3306.
MLA	Zhu, Xian,et al."Dynamical downscaling simulation and projection for mean and extreme temperature and precipitation over central Asia".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 54.7-8(2020):3279-3306.