干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106020
	Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming
	Li, Zhi 1,2; Fang, Gonghuan 1,2; Chen, Yaning1,2 ; Duan, Weili 1,2; Mukanov, Yerbolat 1,2
通讯作者	Fang, Gonghuan ; Chen, Yaning
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0378-3774
EISSN	1873-2283
出版年	2020
卷号	231
英文摘要	In the arid region of Central Asia, climate change leads not only to changes in water availability generated by glacier/snow melt in the alpine regions, but also to changes in water consumption. This paper evaluates agricultural water demand and water supply (represented by precipitation) for the five Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) under global warming conditions of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C. As Central Asia is more sensitive to climate change compared to the global average, the temperature is predicted to rise by 1.7 degrees C and 2.6 degrees C and precipitation to increase by 9 % and 12 % in global warming scenarios of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C, respectively. The average crop water requirement (CWR) is expected to increase by 13mm and 19mm per year, respectively, under the global warming scenarios of 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C. A widening gap between water supply and water demand is expected compared to the historical period (1976-2005) under global warming scenario of 2.0 degrees C. Under global warming of 2.0 degrees C, the anticipated water gaps between precipitation and CWR are projected to increase by 2.8x10(8) m(3) and 1.5x10(8) m(3) for the rainfed north Kazakhstan region and the irrigated Fergana region while the increase of precipitation could able to meet the increase in CWR under global warming of 1.5 degrees C. Investigating the water balance for major planting areas in water-limited Central Asia could provide a scientific basis for sustainable development of the entire region.
英文关键词	Agricultural water demand 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming Water balance Central Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Peoples R China
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000525285400021
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RIVER-BASIN ; IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS ; VEGETATION DYNAMICS ; FERGANA VALLEY ; ARID REGION ; IMPACTS ; CROP ; PRODUCTIVITY ; RESOURCES
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Water Resources
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/313955
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li, Zhi,Fang, Gonghuan,Chen, Yaning,et al. Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2020,231.
APA	Li, Zhi,Fang, Gonghuan,Chen, Yaning,Duan, Weili,&Mukanov, Yerbolat.(2020).Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,231.
MLA	Li, Zhi,et al."Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C global warming".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 231(2020).