干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Application of hydrological model for assessment of water security using multi-model ensemble of CORDEX-South Asia experiments in a semi-arid river basin of India

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecoleng.2019.105641
	Application of hydrological model for assessment of water security using multi-model ensemble of CORDEX-South Asia experiments in a semi-arid river basin of India
	Dubey, Swatantra Kumar 1; Sharma, Devesh 2; Babel, Mukand S.3; Mundetia, Nitika 1
通讯作者	Sharma, Devesh
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING
ISSN	0925-8574
EISSN	1872-6992
出版年	2020
卷号	143
英文摘要	This study analyses the impacts of climate change on water resources in the Banas River Basin, which is located in a semi-arid part of the state of Rajasthan in India. A bias-corrected ensemble mean of three CORDEX-SA driving GCM experiments (CNRM-CM5, CCSM4, and MPI-ESM-LR) was used with the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict water yield and evapotranspiration for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099) under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and the results were compared with the data of a historical period (1979-2008). The SUFI-2 method was used for the calibration and validation of the SWAT model. The model was calibrated for the period of five years (1982-1986) and validated for the next five years (1987-1991). The values of R-2, NSE, bR(2), PBIAS, and RSA were, respectively, 0.78, 0.77, 0.61, 47.4 and 0.48 during the calibration period, and 0.71, 0.65, 0.60, 72.1 and 0.59 during the validation period. Trend analysis was also performed for annual future predicted flows using the Sen Slope method. From the results, it can be predicted that precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water yield will increase in all the three future periods under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Water availability in the future in the basin (zone wise) was identified using appropriate indicators. Per-capita water availability and meteorological variation were used to calculate future water availability and, considering these indicators, it can be concluded that zone 3 will better than the other zones. Zone 3 exhibits high values of per capita water availability and meteorological variation. This study will be useful in understanding the impacts of climate change on the water availability of the river basin and may help in overall water management in the present and the future.
英文关键词	SWAT Bias-correction Climate change Hydrological modeling Water security
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	India ; Thailand
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000505931400003
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; SWAT MODEL ; ASSESSMENT-TOOL ; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS ; CALIBRATION ; RESOURCES ; SCARCITY ; VULNERABILITY ; AVAILABILITY ; SEDIMENT
WOS类目	Ecology ; Engineering, Environmental ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Engineering
EI主题词	2020-01-15
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/312503
作者单位	1.Cent Univ Rajasthan, Dept Environm Sci, NH-8, Kishangarh 305817, Ajmer, India; 2.Cent Univ Rajasthan, Dept Atmospher Sci, Sch Earth Sci, NH-8, Kishangarh 305817, Ajmer, India; 3.Asian Inst Technol, Water Engn & Management, Bangkok, Thailand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dubey, Swatantra Kumar,Sharma, Devesh,Babel, Mukand S.,et al. Application of hydrological model for assessment of water security using multi-model ensemble of CORDEX-South Asia experiments in a semi-arid river basin of India[J],2020,143.
APA	Dubey, Swatantra Kumar,Sharma, Devesh,Babel, Mukand S.,&Mundetia, Nitika.(2020).Application of hydrological model for assessment of water security using multi-model ensemble of CORDEX-South Asia experiments in a semi-arid river basin of India.ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING,143.
MLA	Dubey, Swatantra Kumar,et al."Application of hydrological model for assessment of water security using multi-model ensemble of CORDEX-South Asia experiments in a semi-arid river basin of India".ECOLOGICAL ENGINEERING 143(2020).