干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran

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DOI	10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104299
	Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran
	Shirmohammadi, Bagher 1; Malekian, Arash 1; Salajegheh, Ali 1; Taheri, Bahram 2; Azarnivand, Hossein 1; Malek, Ziga 3; Verburg, Peter H.3,4
通讯作者	Malekian, Arash
来源期刊	LAND USE POLICY
ISSN	0264-8377
EISSN	1873-5754
出版年	2020
卷号	90
英文摘要	Arid and semi-arid regions are particularly vulnerable to global environmental change because of their fragile climatic conditions. The rapid development of land use is expected to affect aquatic ecosystems in these regions. In this study, we focused on how land use change affects the stream flow and inflow to Urmia Lake in the Mordagh Chay basin, Iran. This case-study exemplifies dynamics found across a much larger region. We mapped changes in land use between 1993-2015 using satellite imagery and modeled future changes using the Dyna-CLUE model. We projected future land use change until 2030 under four scenarios: continuing of the current trend of water use, 40% water withdrawal reduction, and two other scenarios with 40% water withdrawal reduction and improvements of irrigation efficiency up to 50% and 85%. Between 1993-2015, 21% of the study area changed to orchard and arable land mostly at the cost of rangeland. However, upon reduction of water withdrawal our analyses showed that garden must decrease between 27% and 40%. Rainfed cropland is projected to experience a major increase in all scenarios, especially in the case of reduced water withdrawal, where it will increase by 217%. In order to achieve sustainable water resources management land use plays a major role and leads to different land use futures in this type of semi-arid regions.
英文关键词	Land use change Scenario Development Irrigation efficiency improvement Urmia Lake Iran
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Iran ; Netherlands ; Switzerland
开放获取类型	Green Published
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000503093800026
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; COVER CLASSIFICATION ; RIVER-BASIN ; ARAL SEA ; STREAMFLOW ; PATTERNS ; PLATEAU ; LEVEL
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
EI主题词	2020-01-01
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/312196
作者单位	1.Univ Tehran, Fac Nat Resources, Karaj, Iran; 2.Amirkabir Univ Fdn, Nexus & HSE Ctr, Tehran, Iran; 3.Vrije Univ Amsterdam, Inst Environm Studies, Environm Geog Grp, De Boelelaan 1087, NL-1081 HV Amsterdam, Netherlands; 4.Swiss Fed Inst Forest Snow & Landscape Res, WSL Zurcherstr 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shirmohammadi, Bagher,Malekian, Arash,Salajegheh, Ali,et al. Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran[J],2020,90.
APA	Shirmohammadi, Bagher.,Malekian, Arash.,Salajegheh, Ali.,Taheri, Bahram.,Azarnivand, Hossein.,...&Verburg, Peter H..(2020).Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran.LAND USE POLICY,90.
MLA	Shirmohammadi, Bagher,et al."Scenario analysis for integrated water resources management under future land use change in the Urmia Lake region, Iran".LAND USE POLICY 90(2020).