干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology

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DOI	10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107694
	Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology
	Elmendorf, Sarah C.1,2; Crimmins, Theresa M.3,4; Gerst, Katharine L.3,4; Weltzin, Jake F.3,5
通讯作者	Elmendorf, Sarah C.
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY
ISSN	0168-1923
EISSN	1873-2240
出版年	2019
卷号	279
英文摘要	The sensitivity of phenology to environmental drivers can vary across geography and species. As such, models developed to predict phenology are typically site- or taxon-specific. Generation of site- and taxon-specific models is limited by the intensive in-situ phenological monitoring effort required to generate sufficient data to parameterize each model. Where in-situ phenological observations exist, the data are often subject to analytical issues due to the limited duration of any individual monitoring program, spotty site- and species-level coverage, lack of standardized methodology, and infrequent or variable census intervals. Together, these characteristics constrain our ability to make phenological inferences outside of select sites and taxa where long-duration, intensive monitoring has occurred. In this study, we leveraged two national, standardized phenology datasets to develop a multi-species and multi-site state-space survival model of the onset of deciduous tree and shrub spring (leaf out) and fall (leaf-color) events across temperate ecoregions of the United States. We used data from two national-scale phenological databases, a 9-year, broadly distributed dataset from the USA National Phenology Network and a 4-year dataset from the National Ecological Observatory Network, to quantify regional and interspecific variation in sensitivity to environmental drivers for both spring and fall leaf phenophases. Spring leaf out was generally promoted by longer days, spring growing degree day accumulation, overwinter chilling, and was suppressed by frost events, whereas fall leaf color was promoted by shorter days and cold accumulation. The sensitivity to most environmental drivers tended to be more variable among species than among the regions as defined here (EPA ecoregions of North America, excluding desert and tropical areas). The results of this study lay the groundwork for incorporating the growing collection of phenological observations into a generalized framework for predicting the transition states for any species, in any location.
英文关键词	Citizen science Phenology Temperature Day length USA-NPN NEON
类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	USA
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000500197400008
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; SPRING PHENOLOGY ; DECIDUOUS TREES ; GREEN-UP ; COMMUNITY ; RESPONSES ; SEASON ; SENSITIVITY ; AUTUMN ; SITES
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Forestry ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
EI主题词	2019-12-15
来源机构	University of Arizona ; United States Geological Survey
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/311752
作者单位	1.Univ Colorado, Inst Arctic & Alpine Res INSTAAR, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol Dept, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; 3.USA Natl Phenol Network, Natl Coordinating Off, Tucson, AZ USA; 4.Univ Arizona, Sch Nat Resources & Environm, Tucson, AZ USA; 5.US Geol Survey, Ft Collins, CO USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Elmendorf, Sarah C.,Crimmins, Theresa M.,Gerst, Katharine L.,et al. Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology[J]. University of Arizona, United States Geological Survey,2019,279.
APA	Elmendorf, Sarah C.,Crimmins, Theresa M.,Gerst, Katharine L.,&Weltzin, Jake F..(2019).Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology.AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY,279.
MLA	Elmendorf, Sarah C.,et al."Time to branch out? Application of hierarchical survival models in plant phenology".AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY 279(2019).