Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
| DOI | 10.1002/met.1856 |
| Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP) | |
| Mesbahzadeh, Tayyebeh1; Mirakbari, Maryam1; Saravi, Mohsen Mohseni1; Sardoo, Farshad Soleimani1,2; Miglietta, Mario M.3 | |
| 通讯作者 | Mesbahzadeh, Tayyebeh |
| 来源期刊 | METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
 |
| ISSN | 1350-4827 |
| EISSN | 1469-8080 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 卷号 | 27期号:1 |
| 英文摘要 | The study was carried out to assess meteorological drought on the basis of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) evaluated in future climate scenarios. Yazd province, located in an arid region in the centre of Iran, was chosen for analysis. The study area has just one synoptic station with a long-term record (56 years). The impact of climate change on future drought was examined by using the CanESM2 of the CMIP5 model under three scenarios, that is, representative concentration pathways RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Given that a drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on a multivariate analysis. For this purpose, two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted by run theory in a past (1961-2016) and future (2017-2100) period based on the SPI and SPEI, and studied using copula theory. Three functions, that is, Frank, Gaussian and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results of the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area will experience droughts with greater severity and duration in future as compared with the historical period, and the drought represented by the SPEI is more severe than that associated with the SPI. Also, drought simulated using the RCP8.5 scenario was more severe than when using the other two scenarios. Finally, droughts with a longer return period will become more frequent in future. |
| 英文关键词 | CanESM2 Copula joint and conditional return period SPEI SPI |
| 类型 | Article |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 国家 | Iran ; Italy |
| 开放获取类型 | hybrid |
| 收录类别 | SCI-E |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000501984000001 |
| WOS关键词 | FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; TOOL ; GENERATION ; INDEXES ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; RISK |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| EI主题词 | 2019-12-10 |
| 资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/311663 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Tehran, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Reclamat Mt & Arid Reg, Tehran, Iran; 2.Univ Jiroft, Fac Nat Resources, Dept Nat Engn, Kerman, Iran; 3.Natl Res Council ISAC CNR, Dept Earth Syst Sci & Environm Technol, Inst Atmospher Sci & Climate, Padua, Italy |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Mesbahzadeh, Tayyebeh,Mirakbari, Maryam,Saravi, Mohsen Mohseni,et al. Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP)[J],2020,27(1). |
| APA | Mesbahzadeh, Tayyebeh,Mirakbari, Maryam,Saravi, Mohsen Mohseni,Sardoo, Farshad Soleimani,&Miglietta, Mario M..(2020).Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP).METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,27(1). |
| MLA | Mesbahzadeh, Tayyebeh,et al."Meteorological drought analysis using copula theory and drought indicators under climate change scenarios (RCP)".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 27.1(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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